JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/13/20

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, I got a late start to posting this chat today, so I'll give the queue five minutes or so to fill up while I work on my power rankings for later this week.

2:01

But in the meantime, welcome, and I hope you're having a great start to your week.

2:06

Alright, let's get started. Things will be a little slower on my end today because we are right in the teeth of the biggest writing chunk for the year, but eh, maybe that will just give me more time to consider my answers.

Jon

2:06

Old school guys criticize analytic's value of first base defense. Is there anything to that?

And do most metrics take into account scooping bad throws from teammates?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Yeah, this is a long-running criticism of advanced defensive metrics, and the reason that it's held up even as others fall away is because there's a lot of measuring things that don't happen.

Like, good luck disagreeing with the fact that, say, Derek Jeter doesn't get to enough grounders

Old school guys loved Jeter's defense enough that he has multiple Gold Gloves, but they've lost that battle.

But first basemen, you can claim evidence of absence

2:08

'that guy is so good at scooping that his infielders can make more throws'

'and have the confidence that they're throwing to the indomitable eric hosmer'

That's naturally a hard thing to measure, because it's not just the change in throwing errors from your teammates

2:09

and fielding errors from your first baseman

Those two effects are easily captured and don't matter much

One of DRS and UZR handles scoops, and I'm not actually sure if Statcast's OAA does

2:10

Looks like UZR doesn't, so maybe it's DRS that covers it?

2:11

In any case I'm willing to believe that metrics don't handle scoops correctly, but the amount of value people attribute to them is wild

2:12

The Padres made 60 throwing errors in 2017, 50 in 2018, and 61 in 2019

That's across all positions

So half a win at the outside, and they actually made more in 2019 with a better defensive third baseman than they did in 2017. Where were the scoops for my boy Fernando Tatis?

Biggie

2:12

Where’d you like to see the next expansion mlb team(s)?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Portland and Montreal, I think

But I'd also love to see one in North Carolina

My real answer is New York

But that won't happen

For obvious reasons around tv markets

2:14

Montreal would be a cool story, Portland has been angling for it for quite some time and can support an NBA franchise, and North Carolina has a TON of good baseball and good baseball fans.

Biggie

2:14

Does Puig sign if doesn’t play in spring training 2.0?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I have no idea! I think it's really weird that no team wants this amount of upgrade in such a wide-open season

I'm also reallllly hoping he doesn't sign somewhere to play left field in the three days before my left field power rankings come out

2:16

I think that if the season starts with no Puig, we will probably get a whole year of no Puig, because a pro-rated salary on this short season at the discount he'd need to take is silly

Just stay healthy and come back for 2021

Music City

2:16

Nashville would be so cool for an MLB team. It would scrape away the Brave's and Cardinal's markets, but the city is growing incredibly fast and should be more than able to support a team.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Another good call, and as a Tennessee native I'm embarrased I didn't name them

In fairness I grew up in East TN so NC would probably be closer depending on where

But yeah

2:17

Nashville would be great, and honestly, concerns about eating into the Cards' market are overblown. I grew up in TN and am a Cards fan, and I knew roughly 0 other ones in the area

Braves market sure, but NC would do the same

2-D

2:17

"the amount of value people attribute to them is wild". They get overrated? Underrated?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Oh, overrated

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