JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/20/20

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

We have published a whole host of positional power rankings in the last week, with division picks and all that nonsense soon to follow.

2:01

There's also a ton of summer camp to talk about, plenty of interesting rotations to consider, and just generally all kinds of fun stuff. Let's jump right in.

5 Run Homer

2:01

What do you predict the Blue Jays end up doing for home games? Do you think being in such an uncertain situation will have negative affects on the team’s performance? Feels to me like the distraction and uncertainty would put a lot of these young guys off their game

Ben Clemens

2:01

I kind of think they're going to play in Buffalo

But absolutely I think it will affect the players.

2:02

It's a pretty unprecedented situation, and I don't exactly know how they'll handle accommodations, facilities, all that kind of stuff.

From a sleeping at home, being used to everything standpoint, it's basically like 60 road games

If the Jays were legit contenders to start the year I feel like this would be a wayyyy bigger story

Lorenzo

2:03

Who is your pick to win it all this season?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think I'll take the Dodgers. I think it's always reasonable to pick the Dodgers, but particularly this year with Mookie, I like their chances more than normal

NotGraphs Revivalist

2:03

Dietrich just exercised the out in his contract - which team would benefit the most from adding him? Thinking an NL team with a need for a DH vs. RHP - Braves? Cardinals?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Hm, I definitely don't think it's the Cards, Matt Carpenter makes a lot of sense there.

And if you want to play him in the field for whatever reason, you could put Fowler at DH to beef up your outfield defense

Braves kind of, though

2:05

When I was looking at that depth chart I liked Yonder Alonso for that role

So Alonso vs. Dietrich? I dunno

That kind of feels like 6 of 1/half dozen of the other

2:06

Someone will give him a look, and the Braves aren't a terrible guess if they aren't into what Alonso is doing, but there's not a lot of demand for a bat-only lefty without really bonkers numbers

2:07

I'd take Matt Adams over him, for example, and Adams is out there too.

RMR

2:07

Can Joe Musgrove finally put it together this year and make the jump? Like what we're seeing in exhibitions, but I'm waiting for a report on him cutting down the sinker and cutter usage, but not seeing anything substantive yet.

Ben Clemens

2:07

I certainly think so -- I'm perpetually too high on Musgrove, though, so take that with a grain of salt.

2:08

You have to think the sinkers are coming down in the post-Searage era, and I don't hate the cutter

The thing I care most about is really just his velo

Isolated Thinker

2:08

Even with the crazy extra inning rule, it's still possible that there could be a long 13+ inning game if each team "matches" one another in extras. If the goal is to make the best effort to avoid these long games, why didn't the agreement just call it a tie after 10 or 11 innings instead of that ridiculous rule? There probably wouldn't be too many anyway. Just like the NFL.

Ben Clemens

2:08

I tihnk there's still strong aversion to ties in baseball.

2:09

I'm not sure it really makes sense

Like, who cares? I don't

But a lot of the baseball watching public seemingly does.

2:10

Those same people probably won't like the new extra innings rule either, to be clear, and something had to be done.

But I think this was a lesser of two evils kinda thing.

Trinian

2:10

Dakota Hudson has a ERA/FIP split of 3.25/4.78 for his career. Is this due to his being a Ground Ball pitcher (57.4%) in front of superb infield defense? Or has he just benefited from random variation and we should expect an ERA near 6.00 this year?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Wow, there's a lot here!

First, the groundball pitching thing matters for sure

There's every reason to think he's a true-talent slight FIP beater

2:11

That said, "slight" FIP beaters are on the order of a quarter to a half point of ERA

So yeah, there's basically no logical way you can say 'he deserves his ERA so far'

On the other hand, regression toward the mean doesn't work the way you're describing

Let's say that his true-talent ERA is 4.5, compared to a 4.78 FIP

Then our best estimate for his future ERA is, well, 4.5

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