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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/20/20

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Ben Clemens

2:12

Getting lucky for two years doesn't increase your odds of unluckiness in the future

Detroit City

2:12

Hey Ben, Thanks for the Chat, Do you have a thought process on Wainwright this year? You believe in the home/road stuff?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I think he'll be what he was last year, generally speaking; a guy who can give you volume innings with so-so quality

That's a perfectly nice player

And something the Cards will be happy to have

I do not at all buy the home/road splits though

2:14

In his career, he has about a 1 point of ERA gap between home and away

2:15

Slightly bigger than league average, so sure, maybe he's marginally more affected

He had a 3 run gap in 2019

No reason to think that's anything other than variance

Trinian

2:15

The Cardinals won 91 games last year by preventing runs. They were 2nd in the National League in Runs Allowed. This year, Depth Charts rates their starting pitching and their relief pitching as decidedly mediocre.

To ask my question, what changed in the off season? Or were they just lucky last year?

Ben Clemens

2:16

It's a combination of a few things. First, Depth Charts is based on FIP-based WAR, and in that sense, the Cards were middle of the pack last year

14th in FIP-

2:17

They were second in defensive runs above average (Def in our leaderboards)

Which made their pitching punch above its weight

And then also they probably got a little lucky in sequencing

The defense will still be there this year, and that's not reflected in our power rankings; we're only considering pitching

2:18

And then you can't expect Flaherty to pitch to a sub-1 ERA for half of the season again, even if you expect him to be a top 5 starter in all of baseball

And you probably shouldn't expect Hudson to keep beating his FIP by 1.5 runs or whatever

So we're forecasting a smidge of regression, but also just looking at PPR will undersell the Cards because of their sterling defense

Nick

2:19

Which team's ranking in a particular Depth Chart Position Ranking most surprised you?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Honestly, Mets at DH

The Mets have other weaknesses, but I don't consider DH to be one of them

If anything, they have too many DH candidates

I think a large part of the reason is that we just have the DH at-bats too spread out across people I don't think deserve them

I think that if Cespedes actually looks fine, he'll take more of them then we project and make them look better

Guest

2:19

do you believe castellanos as a potential mvp candidate this year?

seems like the lightbulb went off once he left Detroit

Ben Clemens

2:20

I do not

I think he'll be a great hitter this year, just like always

Or at least, an above-average hitter this year

But even if he sustains his Cubs pace

I don' think that's an MVP season with his defense

2:21

You'd have to think he can unlock another level at the plate, or at least double his walk rate (4.4% on the Cubs!) or something

And also get better on defense

2:22

I guess in the end, it depends on your definition of potential

1%? Maybe

10%? No way

Mike Hawk

2:22

Should Votto ride off into the sunset or do you think he can be at least league average this year?

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