JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

Let's talk as much baseball as we can for as long as we can, etc.

Appa Yip Yip

2:00

Ben, the lads .... the lads are coming home.

A non-exhaustive list of core Blue Jays who have never played in a home opener: Vlad Jr, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Hyun-Jin Ryu, George Springer, Jordan Romano, Alejandro Kirk, Marcus Semien. Half of the roster has never even suited up in Toronto as the home team.

Ben Clemens

2:00

Really cool

2:01

The Jays have been playin really well considering their nomadic existence, gonna be great to have a real home crowd (no offense to Buffalo and Dunedin) and stadium

Jon G

2:01

As one of the leads on FanGraphs' Trade Value Series effort, I come to you with a topic of hot debate on Cubs twitter: what is Kyle Hendricks' trade value?

Ben Clemens

2:03

We considered him briefly for the list, but I think this year's declining peripherals kept him off in the end

If you want the raw numbers, my spreadsheet thinks he's worth $10 million in surplus value, I peg it higher than that b/c I don't quite buy the forecasts

forecasts*

Crim "Wicho"

2:03

Big debate in Padres land about Cronenworth vs Grisham's trade value. There was a gap in Cro's favor in the official series but it sounds like you might carry them more equivalently, or at least be higher on Grisham than the consensus?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I was higher on Grisham than the consensus, but also higher on Cronenworth

I buy Cronenworth's bat more, and I think that's just quite improtant in the end. But they were both in my top 20 the first time I made a list

Who's Fabio?

2:04

Ben - loved the trade value series, thank you and Kevin and everyone. Do you think Bo Bichette could play a good CF if the Jays move him off SS?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I don't really see it. He's not a true burner, which is what you'd want for a late conversion to outfield

2:06

But I'm not really the person to ask, probably more of a question for Eric or Kevin

Hard for me to think of how outfield conversions will go

Chris

2:06

Why are the As playoff odds so high? They've been slumping bad and if you ignore their history of randomly overachieving, the players they are relying on and the holes they have on their roster seem large

Ben Clemens

2:06

Let me tell you, we DEFINITELY ignore their history of randomly overachieving

2:07

That is not how it works at all. We make projections based on ZiPS and Steamer estimated talent level

It basically comes down to the fact that they're in the Wild Card spot right now, and the AL East teams will beat up on one another

2:08

We have them with a lower ROS W% than the Yankees or Jays, but they just have enough games in hand

And honestly, we have them at 40% to make the playoffs, that's not too crazy

Zach

2:08

If you had it your way where would you have had Corbin Burnes ranked in the trade value series?

Ben Clemens

2:08

9th or so?

2:09

I feel like he was pretty pushed as it is, but no one really disagreed with us too much

The baseball-wide view is that he's just really good

Finnegan's Seam-Shifted Wake

2:09

Do any of the Cubs' pieces on their own net a top-100 prospect?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I don't think so, but there's some chance I'm way low on what teams think of Kimbrel