JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/26

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Ben Clemens

2:13

always a classic

I dunno. his situation is tough and I won't pretend that I have a great handle on the personalities in play and how that matters

glad I'm not a GM!

cosmichero

2:14

With Mead gone Brady House is getting his third chance, do you have much hope for things to be different this time? He should be an upgrade defensively if nothing else

Ben Clemens

2:14

I don' thave a ton of hope, but I would definitely have done the same thing as the Nats, and I'd also give House another chance

you never know when your guy will turn into Jordan Walker

it's vanishingly unlikely

2:15

but I feel like I was saying some similar things on Cardinals season preview shows this winter. Like, did I think Wwalker would pan out? No. But there's plenty of uncertainty in how top prospects will develop and trying to capture that volatility in a positive way is a very good move imo

aglossman

2:15

I think you’re probably right to cut the HMs next year, but I also think it’s probably a fool’s errand to think that’ll cut out any of the stupid questions about guys not on the back end of the list lol

Ben Clemens

2:15

oh yeah, it won't

the nature of lists is that you get those stupid questions

it's a tradeoff for engagement, that's fine

2:16

but the HM ones bother me more b/c like, it's silly!

there are more HM's than people on the list

it's very clearly just me doing a cover my butt kind of thing

so then getting people who appear to be mad at me for it? what a waste

shandykoufax

2:16

I have been harboring the suspicion that the Mets 1H hole knocked them out of the playoff race, but that they were still a respectable team, and could at least play ~.500 for the second half.
In reevaluating, they might actually just be bad.
are they actually just bad?

Ben Clemens

2:16

haha it's honestly hard to say

2:17

because they just got knocked into SUCH a hole that things started spiraling and whatnot

but yeah, they've continually underperformed my expectations

2:18

and I'm taking the under on the .532 ROS W% we're projecting

hyphenkee

2:18

The giants have a run differential of -57 and a BaseRuns differential of +3. When the difference is that great, is it closer to supremely bad luck or something fundamentally wrong with the team?

Ben Clemens

2:18

probably closer to supremely bad luck

in that no one keeps gaps that large for that long

hyphenkee

2:19

Just thinking about Crochet from 17 to off list this year - What's the largest fall from the trade value list ever?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Wander Franco, surely

2:20

sorry about that, a delivery just arrived and my dog made sure to make it eventful

aglossman

2:21

Also, it seems like Breslow is getting mocked for saying his priority is to make the team better, not win the trade. After he has been PILLORIED for months by certain fans and writers for seemingly prioritizing the opposite.

Ben Clemens

2:21

yeah, I'm with this. You can't have it both ways

if the other trades were bad, this has to be good, and vice versa

but I just think it's a reasonable pivot. like, perhaps an 'overpay' but I am more concerned with the team pointing its resources in the correct direction in general and this seems to do that

Schmegs

2:22

The Tigers had the big streak to make the playoffs in 2024, the another in the opposite direction last year. Those plus their mid-season swoon this year makes them feel to me like they are streaker than other teams. Could that be true or is that just because it's been at noticeable times?

Ben Clemens

2:22

my guess? at noticeable times

largely because good luck coming up with a causal mechanism for this

ankoalec

2:22

Reports allegedly state that the Tigers are waiting to see how this week goes before deciding if they're buying or selling at the deadline. Poor planning aside, what would you say Detroit's record needs to be this week to retain Skubal/Torres/Mize ahead of Monday's deadline assuming this reporting is true? Does anything aside from sweeping Baltimore keep them from selling?

Ben Clemens

2:22

on the same note, hmmmmm

2:25

if I were the Tigers I'd be pretty interested in trading Skubal, I hate to say. I would want to give it more thought if I were actually the Tigers, of course. But I like a lot of what they're doing long-term and don't think they are that likely to make the playoffs this year. I do agree with you that sweeping Baltimore would tilt things a lot more towards holding because Baltimore is one of the teams they're behind

but for me, their current spot (four teams between them and the last wild card spot) is nto very tenable. I'd want two teams between me and WC3 at most

fincampbell05

2:25

Can you reassure us that Franklin Arias will not be traded for a lesser player with less control like Neto or Pena?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I mean, with 100% certainty? No. But I really don't think he's getting moved. It doesn't fit with Breslow's m.o. at all to me. The last time he traded a top prospect it was Teel in the Crochet deal. And generally speaking he seems to me like he's drinking the prospect valuation kool-aid that the league has been having recently

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