JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/6/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/6/20

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Ben Clemens

2:12

Think of it like a sort of 40-man roster

If you're not on the 60-man, you can't play or be included in trades this year

2:13

Can't take part in organized team scrimmages even, I think, though I'm less certain on the exact implementation.

So if you want someone to get consistent reps against good minor league pitching, they need to be on your 60-man

If you might trade someone, they need to be on there

If you have a contingency plan that involves them playing in the bigs, they need to be on there.

2:14

Franco likely fits the first category; he's likely on the list because they want him to play against good pitching and keep developing.

2:15

It definitely doesn't mean he's likely to make the bigs this year. But it does mean that if they have severe injury issues he could.

And as to the traded part, he's not getting traded, don't fret.

Kramer

2:15

Time for your crystal Ball Ben: Over/under 8.5 players who sign a FA deal in 2021 for 3+ guaranteed years. Bonus question...what does Ozuna end up doing. Obviously so much can change but this off-season is definitely going to be interesting

Ben Clemens

2:15

Hm

2:16

For reference, 17 did so this past offseason

From Gerrit Cole all the way down to Josh Lindblom.

2:17

I'll say over, but I think that AAV's will be way down, justifiably so.

Bart

2:17

If a player goes on the IL can the player be replaced on the 60 man roster?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Yes, however, only for COVID-related IL. And then when they come back, as I understand it, the players who replaced them will need to leave the roster when they come back

2:19

And the only ways to leave the roster are weird nonsense like retirement and military service

So teams are really incentivized to never remove players

Sam

2:19

What are the odds that a truly star level player (Mike Trout?) opts out of the season? Would that impact the perception of the season more than covid already has?

Ben Clemens

2:19

This seems like a really tough thing to speculate about, so let me stipulate that my error bars are huge here

But, 25%?

2:21

To be clear, opting out seems like a reasonable option for many established stars

But baseball players LOVE baseball

Don't underestimate that

GrandPubaDirtbag

2:21

J Montgomery indicated that Tanaka's getting hit in the head was a "one in a million" thing. I'm not going to argue with his scholarship, but are there any numbers on how frequent this does happen in the MLB (practice or game situations)?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I've never seen any such statistics. One in a million might not even be wrong -- there were 730k pitches last year and nothing like this.

It's certainly not impossible, and also not probable

And goodness I hope he's okay, that was scary

Tyrone

2:23

Who do you think has the highest ceiling/makes the biggest impact this season out of Jesse Winker, Sam Hilliard, and Randy Arozarena?

Ben Clemens

2:23

Winker, b/c of the DH. I am reallllly high on Arozarena overall, but I just think that the Reds situation works in Winker's favor

With Margot now on the Rays Arozarena will have less to do.

Member of So-ciety

2:24

Any Brewers you like a little more after getting to know them as their OOTP GMident?

Ben Clemens

2:24

For sure!

Brock Holt, lots of random relievers (headlined by Jonathon Feyereisen), Avi Garcia

I'm also going to have more knowledge of Brewers prospects than pretty much any other team for a bit now.

Member of So-ciety

2:25

Kris Bryant says he is more or less ready to extens. How close to 1 can we get his $/WAR?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Ha

I mean

Don't hold your breath

I'm curious to see what happens with Bryant but make no mistake, this year has hardened players' resolve

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