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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/6/26

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Ben Clemens

2:32

I mean, if there's a lockout

fincampbell05

2:33

If the Red Sox decide to sell, and most likely they will to some extent, how should they handle their relievers? They have Chapman/Whitlock/Slaten/Guerrero. Do they sell all of them and put all their eggs into the "relievers are volatile, never count on them" bucket? Do they keep all of them because they're all under control next year? If in between, which do you sell?

Ben Clemens

2:35

Hm, I think I'd sell some but not all, and honestly, looking at the contract status, I think it'd mostly depend on what I could get for them. No one's a rental, but you can't exactly bank on many years of reliever performance

jonmberra

2:35

Cardinals starters are top 10 in fWAR since May 1st, should that change what they do at the deadline? Rotation being even just okay seems like a big deal for them.

Ben Clemens

2:35

I'm trying to talk myself into it right now as I look at them

2:37

and like..... maybe? I dunno, I can get myself to 'average rotation' but not really farther, even with my cards fandom engaged

2:38

so mayyyyybe if there are some essentially free relievers to be added I'd be interested?

2:40

but like.... I dunno, maybe it's just my sabermetric brain but I don't like rotations that don't strike anyone out, and that definitely describes the cards

I do like that they have a lot of good command guys

I dunno, maybe I'm talking myself into it, I guess? But I just hate throwing good money after bad in these situations where I look at the team and go 'eh, maybe, but it's a year or two before I would expect it'

Bobzilla

2:41

Do you find today's young talented hitters under the age of 30 to be less consistent than their peers from previous generations? Thinking about players such as Acuna, Tatis, Guerrero, etc. If so, besides injuries, what are some possible explanations?

Ben Clemens

2:41

i have no clue, and I'm sure that my brain could not correctly do this without having some kind of recency bias in one direction or the other

like.... you remember the inconsistent guys less, ex post

sounds like another interesting article for the lockout!

SPArn

2:41

Rather than snubs, any favorite all star STORIES? I love ERod getting his first nod over a decade in, on his fourth franchise

Ben Clemens

2:42

oh that's a fun one, yeah

I think that CJ Abrams being the NL starter at short is absolutely delightful

2:43

strong bounceback from a bummer end of last season

fanoftheman

2:43

Since you started modeling baseball, what has changed the most in how you philosophically approach building models for baseball?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I hope that I have become more "humble" about accepting that I really don't know all that much

and trying not to ignore what I can't model

2:44

i mean largely I just keep trying to be less wrong by looking for old biases. but I think one of the biases I've been fighting against longest is that I am a confident person. So if I'm not being careful, sometimes I stick with what I've always done because, well, I've always done it and it's worked well

2:45

when I had just started doing baseball analysis, I think I was just really into my own stuff and my own numbers. Now I'm a lot more like 'well I think these are good but why might I be wrong?'

Alex Remington

2:45

If you were in Alex Anthopoulos's shoes, what would you do? Your talented team had a brilliant first two months and an absolutely terrible third. You probably have to buy at the deadline, but how hard do you push? Are you expecting the rest of the year to play out closer to 2023 or 2024?

Ben Clemens

2:45

I think I'd buy aggressively, honestly. Good team, but not getting any younger, and there are some clear places for upgrades

like, this team has a very high top end, and is also playign some extremely marginal players

seems like an ideal place to be aggressive

war2d2

2:46

Also Colson Montgomery is having a nice season, but he’s probably going g to end the year with a WAR somewhere around the Ian Happ range of “solid but not elite.” Layered on top of that is the name Colson. GTFO with that noise. There’s been a real inflation of Cole-based names at the expense of traditional, boring, white bread names and I for one will not stand for it. #BringBackBob

Ben Clemens

2:46

colson and colton and colten are so hot right now

you're not wrong

bosoxforlife

2:47

Those darn Red Sox. Just when I think I can give up on the season they suck me back in. The young pitching is so interesting that, if nobody breaks down, they can put together some some long runs of special stuff. Please help me get my senses back.

Ben Clemens

2:47

I mean, isn't this why baseball is great?

if no one breaks down and they climb back ahead of the A's, O's, Jays (or some mixture thereof) to be only two teams out of the WC, maybe they're even buyers!

2:48

we'll know a lot more in 20 days, though, that's part of the delight of baseball

PC1970

2:49

The Tigers are like the mafia- everytime I think they're out of it, they go 5-1 for a week & pull me back in.

Ben Clemens

2:49

Tigers and Red Sox both

alright guys I'm going to call the chat slightly early today, some work to get to and I'm dragging a little mentally so I need to get focused

2:50

have a wonderful week, and let's do this again next Monday

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