JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/8/24

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Guest

2:22

By BaseRuns, the Phillies are the best team in the NL. Would you take them as more likely to reach the World Series than the Dodgers?

Ben Clemens

2:23

nah, I'll still take the Dodgers. I think both will get round one byes, and I think it's really close, to be clear, but I just like the Dodgers' talent a bit more

Ghost of Wade Boggs

2:23

Hypothetical rule change time! Pretend for a minute that baseball imposed a rule in which a team could field 9 DHs. In conjunction, 8 additional roster spots would be granted so as not to affect pitching configurations.

The obvious consequence of this is that it would be assumed that offensive production throughout the league would go up. But it would have to be assumed that defensive quality would increase as well. The question is, what do you think would happen to the overall run scoring in the league if both of those components were to increase dramatically and simultaneously?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think scoring would go up meaningfully

2:24

defense exerts less influence on the game than hitting

because it only matters on the subset of plate appearances that end in fieldable batted balls

Derek

2:24

Lindor is like, a 99% shot to replace Mookie, right?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Unless I am misunderstanding, Mookie has already been replaced

2:26

hm, now I'm not sure

but yes, I think that Lindor is really high in the replacement hierarchy

Jaded Mariners fan

2:26

Do the Mariners have a special talent for turning hitters bad? Thinking about Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Kolten Wong, Adam Frazier, Teoscar Hernandez, Jesse Winker just in the past few years. But it’s a trend that goes back to Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins in the mid 2000s.

Ben Clemens

2:26

Some of these don't make sense to me

2:27

like, Wong went there when he was already on the extreme downswing, Frazier had one good year in 2021 but hasn't been especially good ever

Wong had a pretty good 2022, but I dunno, everyone seemed to agree the writing was on the wall

2:28

Winker, no argument there

I do think that hitters don't like hitting in TMobile

guest

2:28

Is there any truth to teams that score a lot of runs via the HR ball, struggle in the post-season? Because apparently, the Orioles score too many runs via the HR ball for a contingent of the fanbase. Cold weather, better pitching, blah, blah, blah.

Ben Clemens

2:28

there is not. When Ben Lindbergh investigated this, he found that teams that score more of their runs via the homer actually do slightly BETTER than you'd expect in the playoffs

2:28

Cubs should be shopping Taillon, no? They won't get any return, but someone probably would want him even with that contract, and the Cubs would love not to owe him $36 million over the next two years.

Ben Clemens

2:29

yeah, I'm sure they will be

Broken Bat

2:29

Could Dodgers be interested with his multi year salary in Dansby? Couldn’t Cubs start the unload by maybe getting River Ryan, once their 2 top rated catchers. To me they ( Dodger side) are spare parts.They help their pitchers with Swanson at SS? plausible?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I don't think the Cubs want to trade Swanson

full no trade, seems to like Chicago, his wife plays there too

C-Low

2:29

Would Gunnar's all around value be enough to surpass Judge as the MVP if the season ended today?

Ben Clemens

2:29

2:30

I mean.... maybe he'd deserve it? depends on how you think about what deserve means

but Judge would win if the season ended today and they had a vote

Raymond

2:30

How has Seattle been in first place for this long with an offense this bad? As an O's fan, I didn't actually realize how awful that lineup was until this past series. When Julio isn't hitting, there genuinely isn't a good hitter anywhere in that lineup?

Ben Clemens

2:30

their offense is SHOCKINGLY bad

2:31

i think Josh Rojas is a 'good hitter'

Cal Raleigh too

not great, but winning teams have dudes like those

but yeah, woof. it's just an all pitching squad

Kirk

2:31

George Kirby should be an all star. I'm offended by his omission. Do you think he gets added later?

Ben Clemens