JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/11/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/11/25

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:16

the noise isn't in the measurement, it's in the fact that you don't get the same set of plays to make every year, and even if your true talent is the same, it's a pretty random process

it's not like people's defensive metrics are now perfectly consistent from year to year

Heck, look at Raleigh. The best defensive season of his career was 2024, the worst might end up being 2025

ceratinly the worst receiving season

and i don't really beleive that those two things are both true

Guest

2:17

Brooks Lee an answer at SS or more utility?

Ben Clemens

2:18

so I'm not 100% sure on this, but I've been watching a bit more of the Twins since the deadline (rubbernecking, basically)

and he's making a lot of rookie type mistakes, errors of commission not omission

2:20

I'm hopeful, honestly, despite it not looking great so far

and I love that they're trying

Elbow Macaroni

2:20

Milwaukee does not have a SP in the top 30 in FIP since July 1. Are they showing that you can get to the playoffs without elite starting pitching? Didn't work too well for Baltimore last year...

Bosoxforlife

2:20

Can you explain how the Milwaukee Brewers can go 48-16 in their last 64 games? Is it time to take a closer look at how teams are constructed because I don't think any projection system has had the Brewers as the dominant team in the NL Central since 2021 with only one 2nd place finish marring their string of 1st place finishes.

Ben Clemens

2:20

I really can't

2:21

I will say that 'models underestimate the Brewers b/c they over-regress baserunning and defense' is the most bankable gambling play in the world in my view of it

it's seemed to work every year

like, their team construction is poorly understood by models

I think that they're showing that you can make the playoffs wihtout elite pitching.... but like, still pretty good pitching?

and also, great everything else

CleGuy

2:21

What are the odds that Jose Ramirez wins the AL MVP instead of Judge or Raleigh? He's having a good year, the Guardians are storming back?

laughing

1

Ben Clemens

2:21

sorry, zero

not happening

2:22

you're gonna pick the guy batting .289/.365/.509 over the two hitting .337/.446/.691 or .247/.354/.593 as a catcher?

and the second one is doing it in a dead ball park

I think Jose Ramirez is great and I feel like I'm meaningfully higher than consensus on him

but nah, can't do it

Willy Loman

2:22

Dealing for Luzardo was a masterstroke. Injuries have kept him under 101 innings in all but one season. Now he is lighting it up.

Ben Clemens

2:23

I truly don't know what to think of Luzardo

like, is he lighting it up?

2:24

he was amazing to start the season, but he's been completely forgettable since then

nice pitcher, don't get me wrong, but lighting it up seems like a stretch

roger ebert

2:24

think you were a little dismissive of the judge question. obviously he's still good. but judge being merely "elite", say a 150-170 wrc+, rather than "god" with a 220 is still a huge difference and genuinely could sink the yankees this year and even worse into the future

Ben Clemens

2:24

sure

I just don't think he's worse

defensive metrics

2:24

I understand why, for example, PCA in CF would have different opportunities every year - but wouldn't a catcher have so many opportunities to frame compared to any other position their metrics would be better? I think you could explain Cal's defense this year as him 'focusing on hitting' or something (not sure if that works) but as a Giants fan, just as an example, Bailey has been very consistent with his framing metrics

Ben Clemens

2:25

sure but the umpires are different, the measurements are different, umpires adapt to the way people receive, you get different balls at different times in different counts

Bailey's framing numbers have been consistent

no one else's in freaking all of baseball have been

2:26

trying to deal with catcher defense advanced metrics is endlessly difficult for me

the truly elite guys (Hedges, Bailey) seem to always be able to do it

but then the guys below that are all over the place

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat