JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/12/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:33

I mean.... putting Ohtani up there feels a little unfair, given that he signed that deal when he was already expected to miss this season and has actually been amazing

2:34

I don't think this has a particular impact on pitcher deal valuation, I think the impact has already happened. like teams are just shying away from big deals, particularly lengthy deals, to pitchers

Yamamoto has the biggest deal in history now, and I think that general idea -- that only very young pitchers will get long-term deals but that stars can still go through high-dollar deals until they slow down -- will continue

2:35

I was really surprised by the deGrom deal when it was signed, I thought a high-dollar short-term deal was more probable, and I think that's the real outlier of this group

AL Central Casting

2:35

Do the Guards actually have elite x3 defense though? What is your favorite metric for judging team defense?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I like looking at some blend of DRS and OAA. I really need to formalize that with an article b/c I noticed I was writing about it a lot in the trade value series

probably gonna be an offseason project

Nate

2:36

Can you explain why Cleveland has such a big disparity between their Pythagorean and BaseRuns record? PythagenPat has them at 67-51 (+2) but BaseRuns has them at a whopping 58-60 (+11)

Ben Clemens

2:40

Yeah, I think I can do this in two stats. With runners on base, the Guardians are hitting .252 with a .435 slug (327 wOBA). With no one on, they're hitting .232 with a .374 slug (.294 wOBA). That's one of the biggest gaps in baseball

2:41

meanwhile, on the pitching side, they've allowed a .325 wOBA with the bases empty but only .298 with runners on

so basically BaseRuns ignores those gaps and treats the results as if it were a 0 gap

they've played far better in high run leverage spots than they have in low run leverage spots, baseruns ignores run leverage, voila

Jake

2:41

After sweeping the Mets how are you feeling about the Mariner's odds of making noise in the playoffs?

Ben Clemens

2:42

I mean, roughly the same as before, which is that I think they're pretty good and I think I picked them to win the AL West

Mateo

2:43

what would be your proposal for connecting the baseball season to baseball at the Olympics in 2028. Two week break? Or just not let major leaguers play b/c we already have WBC?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Yeah, I'd go the soccer route and make it a non-pro sport with few exceptions

I'm not against having a ceremonial MLB guy on the downswing, but no need to stop the season and go full dream team

Well-Beered Englishman

2:43

My Olympics pitch would be to rotate them among maybe 5 cities. Just for time zone variety so everyone gets live events in prime time every 20 years.

Ben Clemens

2:44

Oh yeah, that would work too

I do enjoy the Olympics in the Americas, and everyone getting that chance to have the time zones line up would be nice

west coast time vs European time was rough

Okra

2:45

It's situations like the one with Jared Jones that make me hate when teams baby young SPs too much early in the season. Now that he has been out with an injury it's unlikely he surpasses even 120 IP this season after returning.

Ben Clemens

2:45

I was actually a fan of them having him in a six man rotation

i think you could argue they babied him a bit much during starts, but he was losing velo and command pretty substantially at the end of these games

2:46

I think there's a better argument to be made that his training was letting him down. I have watched a TON of Jared Jones starts this year and I didn't come away thinking 'man this guy just needs more work.' I came away thinking 'wow he really empties out the tank'

Doc

2:46

The Mets 4-6 road trip? The beginning of the end, or a not great but not disasterous effect of a four-city, three-time zone stretch?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Probably the latter

but given that it's the Mets, you have to allow for the chance of the former

bosoxforlife

2:46

Have you watched a game in person in which the challenge ABS system has been used? I am going to Worcester Friday to see it in operation.

Ben Clemens

2:46

I haven't, but I've talked to a lot of FG personnel who have

I'm curious to hear what you think

DBacks Heater

2:46

About how realistic is a "Ketel Marte for NL MVP" run with the way the DBacks have been playing?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think it's there for the taking if he stays this hot and the DBacks finish strong

2:48

the NL has a relatively weak crop of MVP candidates this year, it feels like a lot of the guys who were pushing for it early have cooled off all at once

seth

2:48

will elly win the NL MVP? would it take 30 HR/80 SB, or would Reds have to make the playoffs?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I don't think the playoffs are crucial if they finish CLOSE to the playoffs

2:49

like he isn't having the kind of season where you finish 75-87 and win MVP. I think it mostly matters how well he plays down the stretch though

it's a weak batting line for an MVP, so I think he'd have to improve it a little, make some memorable plays, and have no one in front of him run away with it

I should have mentioned this in the Witt answer up above, and I suppose in relation to a Lindor candidacy, but defense matters more for WAR than for MVP voting

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

2:50

Is this just who Jared Kelenic is now? A fringe average/fourth outfielder on a good team? He's 25 with an OBP of .305 across last year and this year (795PA). This year, despite cutting a couple points off his K rate (from 31.7% to 29.6%) and already surpassing last year's HR total (13 vs 11), has managed both a lower batting average and slugging percentage.

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat