JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/22

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

I'll be intermittently scrambling here thanks to some technical problems on the computer end, but hoping to make up for it by being SUPER insightful when I'm here

James

2:01

Yesterday Dusty had a hitter with a .256 OBP lead off, and he made the final out as the go-ahead run. How does that happen in 2022?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Yeah, that one does not make a ton of sense to me?

2:03

Dubon just shouldn't be leading off for these Astros. In fairness to them, they were running a lighter-offense squad, but still, put Bregman there or something

Dave

2:03

Would you give Ohtani 6/300 as of now?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Was thinking about this awhile before I started the chat

2:04

I think that I would, even if I'm not sure whether he'll merit it in on-field production; it's just so hard to guess what Ohtani will look like in three years

2:05

But I think the marketing value and the sheer irreplaceable Ohtani-ness of it all is worth a ton

So yeah, I would if it came down to it

Champdo

2:05

How worried should we be about Riley Greene?

Ben Clemens

2:05

As worried as we are about all prospects not panning out. It can definitely happen, and it's hard to foresee who is more likely to bust or not

2:06

I don't think we've learned anything about him from his first 235 PA's, though; his contact quality seems completely reasonable, he's striking out too much but doesn't have a horrid approach or anything, and we'll just need to see more to know

Braydon

2:06

Any thoughts on the start of Nolan Gorman's MLB career?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Yeah, he seems largely like what I thought he'd be, strikeouts and power in a guy who at best is stretched as a second baseman

2:08

Would have packaged him up in a Soto deal so fast it'd make your head spin, but I think he's still got plenty of hitting upside if he can adjust a bit to how he's being pitched

He still has no defensive home, but the universal DH makes that less of an issue, particularly given that he's being used in a platoon mostly

171

2:08

Before the season, I asked you if you thought that adding Adley to the O's would result in the team ERA being 1 run lower than 2021. Turns out the team ERA is almost 2 runs lower and we were both wrong especially considering John Means made 1.5 starts, Grayson hasn't thrown an MLB pitch and DL Hall barely made a cameo. I guess my question is, how could you possibly have not seen this coming???

Ben Clemens

2:08

Lack of foresigh, inexcusable!

Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.

2:09

Rengifo breakout real? Fringe fiver to official building block?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Are we talking about the same Luis Rengifo? Like yes, I understand he's been better in the second half, but I think he's just a serviceable hitter with doubles pop

2:11

I'm not seeing a lot that would make me say he's suddenly turned a corner. Now, a 2 win player on the Angels is rare (they mostly have MVP's and scrubs), so maybe he's a building block for them, but that's grading on an extreme curve

Jacques Pederson

2:11

How much does the Josh Hader trade help the Cardinals psychologically?

Ben Clemens

2:11

A lot, but I'm guessing a bit less because Hader's indomitable reputation got all messy already

The Real Ben Clemens

2:12

have there been any more recent developments in quantifying seam-shifted wake that you've seen? Feel like I saw a bunch of articles on it a year or so ago and then it just kind of dropped out of the public sphere

Ben Clemens

2:12

Not a ton, no

Bardo Bill

2:12

Seems tricky to predict Bogaerts' contract, given that he's been very consistent overall for the last 5 years, but the batted ball metrics are a little worrying this season and it's not clear how long he can stay at SS. Do you think there's a chance he could be held to a Story/Baez type deal (6/140), or will someone give him 7+ years?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I think he'll get 7+, but maybe as a third baseman?

Jon

2:13

"Even if he doesn't stick at short, it won't matter because it bat will play anywhere." Well of course it matters. He could still be valuable but he'll be less valuable.

Ben Clemens

2:13

Isn't that kinda implied? I don't know who wrote that (probably me), but I read that as saying the fail cases are more limited because he's not a shortstop-only bat

I also don't know who he is, but hey, that sounds like a good player!

Guest

2:14

Ohtani-related thought experiment: As a GM of a generic playoff competitive team you are offered an extra roster spot for the season. The cost is tying the injury risk of your best hitter and best pitcher together (i.e. if one goes on IL the other has to). Do you take the roster spot? Is it close?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Iiiiiinteresting

I think it depends on whether those injury risks stack. Like, let's say in a generic season each one has a 5% chance of getting hurt. Does this linkage mean they have a 10% chance of both getting hurt? That'd be a pretty big hit

If it was instead a 5% chance of losing both, far more palatable

Al Avila

2:15

How do you change the broadcast on MLB TV? It's a new set up this year.

Ben Clemens

2:15

That weird antenna thing has a bunch of options, and you can switch the team broadcast th ere

cool

1

Zach

2:15

I've seen Jackson Chourio ranked as high as #3 in the league on a recent prospect list, which is pretty crazy for an 18-year old. Should I be leaping out of my chair for this prospect?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I have legitimately no idea. I get involved in prospect hype from time to time, but for guys that far away, I have no idea how to think about it even

2:16

It sounds like people think he's awesome! He's also 18 and has less than 100 Pa's in full season ball

vomit

1

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