JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/17/20

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Ben Clemens

3:29

So I dunno if they can do that and then also just plug Barreto into their starting lineup

3:30

You're not wrong on the valuation, though, just the TIgers' mindset, in my eyes

Chris

3:30

Start mize on Wednesday?

Ben Clemens

3:30

For sure

Appa Yip Yip

3:30

It's so weird how many fiddly fixes people try to come up with to get more balls in play when all you need to do is raise the bottom of the strike zone to the top of the knees. It got lowered in the 90s to the bottom of the knees so just bring it back up.

Ben Clemens

3:30

That could be the pitcher fix too

I just don't think you want to do something that only helps hitters right now

Overall offense isn't low

It's jsut homer-based

Austin

3:30

Who is JaCoby Jones? Great defensive OF one year, terrible the next; consistently mediocre hitter before this season but off to a hot start. Not sure what to think

Ben Clemens

3:31

xwOBA is an overrated stat, of course

Or, well, I dunno if that's true

I think it's overused analytically

3:32

But actually properly rated

No one would tell you it's the end-all be-all but it's useful

It thinks Jones is better this year, and he's hitting the ball harder

But he's also getting wildly lucky

3:33

I think he settles down into an average-ish hitter

As for the defense, he looks the part to me, and Statcast likes him well enough

I guess a nice little piece?

Justin

3:33

What are your thoughts on xFIP?

Ben Clemens

3:34

If I only got one run estimator for pitchers

I think I'd pick xFIP

It has issues, it really does fail to capture some pitchers with HR skill

But it gets a lot right very simply

It's something I always look at

3:35

NOt the last thing I look at, but somewhere in the stack every time

Chris

3:35

Ben why are the Mariners and dodgers playing 2 games in LA starting today then travelling to Seattle to play 2 more games. Why not just play all 4 in one place because of you know covid...

Glenn Spankman

3:35

Asking as a noob, why all the hype around Mize? He didn't even break 9 K/9 in AA last year and projections have him at a 5.26 ERA.

Ben Clemens

3:36

Because his stuff looks good and he didn't pitch at AA long enough for that to be hugely predictive, but still had good run prevention numbers in that sample (also not hugely predictive)

Mostly because he's a top overall pick who has done well at every level in the minors, though

Justin

3:36

Do you value xFIP over SIERA?

Ben Clemens

3:37

Yes, but not by much. I don't like the opacity of SIERA, the fact that it rates different batted ball outcomes differently but not in an intuitive way.

3:38

It has a lot of non-linearities in it, which means that if those are modeled a little wrong you might get some very weird results

Whereas xFIP is less precise but its misses are linear

Austin

3:38

Move the fences back? Maybe not practical, but creates more balls in play and doesn't mess with the mound distance which could be problematic

Ben Clemens

3:38

Then you need to do something to harm pitchers more

3:39

If you just move the fences back right now, you're turning HR into doubles and outs

So it's more balls in play but it doesn't do anything about strikeouts and walks, which I think are the real thing people dislike

2-D

3:39

Do you think Santana can make it to the end of the season with a walk rate at or above 20%?

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