JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/17/20

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Ben Clemens

2:30

It's every bit as arbitrary as anything else

2:31

I actually think they should redo the whole system but assuming they're keeping the whole last place gets the first pick plan in general

Why should this year be any different?

Chris

2:31

How do the Padres replace Pham?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Yeah, this one stings

We think they'll use a lot of Profar in the outfield since Cronenworth has hit so well that he's locked second base up for the future (it seems)

But like, ew

2:33

Trading every single one of their surplus outfielders looked awesome in the offseason but it stung them here

I guess I'd run with Profar for now and see what teams drop out of the race. The Nats might trade Eaton if they go 3-7 or 2-8 in the next 10 games or whatever

Guest

2:34

Any chance we see more of Olivares now that Pham is injured?

Ben Clemens

2:34

Yes, definite higher chance. If Profar keeps scuffling and isn't a transcendent outfield defender (and I mean, he's probably not), they have to try something

Pham is basically out the rest of the year. Can't just be passive

scuffy mcgee

2:34

Kris Bryant looks over matched. How concerned are you about his weak start

Ben Clemens

2:34

I'm not, at least not yet

2:36

He's not hitting enough line drives, and he's not swinging enough

2:37

But it's a small sample and I want to see more before I really think anything

Joshua

2:37

So, if the Nats do go 3-7 or so during the next 10 games and decide to deal Eaton to the Pham-less Padres, what could that deal potentially look like?

Ben Clemens

2:37

Presumably a 40/45 kind of prospect

I think it'd be funny for them to trade Anderson Espinoza

After he was so hyped and then so injured

Guest

2:37

Would you rather have the older guy with two years of control left (arb) or the younger guy with five years left? Assume similar projected WAR per year.

Ben Clemens

2:38

If it's similar per year, I'll take the extra years

If it's similar total value, I think I'm in the minority among baseball front office views but I'd take the older guy

Guest

2:38

Why are the OOTP pirates so much better than the real life pirates? Ownership?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Every single player had a 95th percentile outcome

And then they made a really good trade for Marcus Semien at the deadline

2:39

But if the actual Pirates played like the OOTP Pirates I'd like their odds of a playoff run

I think they have the potential for good pitching (which has happened in OOTP)

2:40

But they need all the replacement-ish hitters to hit for the whole package to work, or for Bell and Reynolds and Frazier to take steps forward

Mike Hawk

2:40

Ben, I live on Cole and Parnassus and frequent the Kezar, so you're obliged to answer my question...Mize and Skubel, Skubel and Mize...the REAL gem here is Paredes getting the call up. The kid can hit for 60 power. What do you make of his chances to find ABs?

Ben Clemens

2:40

Oh yeah he's a big deal too

I think I favor Mize of the three but yes, he's great

I think his chances of getting AB's are really good

You don't call him up and not give him a bunch of AB's

If you did that, you'd be starting his service time clock without helping his development

bighen

2:40

What was the hype around Amed Rosario and what has changed? He had horrible plate discipline when he came up, some bad lower body mechanics when he came up etc. and he still has those things. Is it just a matter of not being able to improve or has he picked up some bad habits along the way? I realize he's played ~15 games this season but he's borderline unplayable

Ben Clemens

2:40

I'm a long-time Amed hype man

2:41

So let's see if I can distill my thoughts about him into a few sentences

I thought that his frame and his athleticism meant that he'd iron out the kinks on defense

2:42

And that he'd be floored at okay, with upside to excellent if he could bulk up and hit for power

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