JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/17/26

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Ben Clemens

2:12

I did some z scoring and weighting and found a top 6 that includes my mystery player, plus Murakami, Kurtz, James Wood, Soto, and Judge. Good list!

but the point is that Gelof is one of only four players to check every box

along with Matt Olson, Tyler Soderstrom, and for some reason Tim Tawa

2:13

so you know, does that prove that this is a great stat and that gelof deserves his batting line? no

but does it suggest taht he's doing some good stuff? definitely

dirtypuer

2:13

They should do a Moneyball game at the coliseum if they really want to move the needle

Ben Clemens

2:13

oh man

what a great idea

watertexas8445

2:13

RE: WPA summing to 0. It does sum to 0, I was dumb. It is +57.08 for pitching and -57.08 for hitting.

Ben Clemens

2:14

oh, there we go. so yeah, my guess for this is that we aren't zeroing it to the exact run environment

you can imagine either way being right. but that makes a lot of sense. negative hitting WPA means fewer runs scoring than we expect, sure

Davy Andrews

2:15

Hi Ben!

Ben Clemens

2:15

well hello there Davy

theonlynolan

2:15

Austin Riley has been ok in the second half but a brutal first half, but what's going on there, did the Braves buy in too much to something that wasn't there

Ben Clemens

2:15

Them and me too. I bought in on his defense early, and I think that was right. But I don't really know what happened to his hitting. I don't think it's fair to say that it was never there; he posted a 2500 PA stretch with a 132 wRC+

that's pretty freaking good

but he has collapsed in the past two years, really the past 2.5

2:16

it's a good reminder that you can't predict the future

Davy Andrews

2:16

Ok, gotta go. Baby crying.

Ben Clemens

2:16

farewell Davy. And Derek Jr.!

millvillemeltdown

2:16

my tim tawa for mvp pitch grows by the day

InsertWittyNameHere

2:16

Re: rocking the boat, I agree, still dumb. But man, as a father, I hate having to explain what gambling and that other stuff is. I also can’t believe I’m turning into Maude Flanders from the Simpsons “won’t anyone think of the children!”

Ben Clemens

2:16

yeah to be honest, the Polymarket odds get to me more than anything else

those are just shocking

2:17

'the betting doesn't have to start when the game begins'

okay but like, maybe it should

Philip Christy

2:17

Hello Ben, re: your Tarik Skubal article last week, and my comment that you replied to: I find it really interesting to look at deadline trades in terms of the math on future World Series odds. Is it possible to put together a model for figuring out the odds on every trade like that? Or are there too many variables?

Ben Clemens

2:17

so, I am trying to build one. But there are a lot of variables, and yeah, it requires a ton of care, to the point that it's extremely manual

2:20

I think that it's probably just going to remain as a bespoke thing I break out for big trades, because trying to cuff replacement level designed for individual teams is really had

Jeremy Fox

2:20

How about a "Major League" game in Cleveland?

aglossman

2:20

Can we get an “A League of Their Own” game? Geena Davis and Lori Petty each manage a WPBL team for a day. Tom Hanks throws out the first pitch, maybe hangs out in the broadcast booth with Rosie and Madonna for awhile. Proceeds go to charity. Bing bang boom.

Ben Clemens

2:20

I mean, a League of their own game seems very doable honestly

I'd be super in for a Sandlot game in LA too

grandbranyan

2:20

Which of the seven teams between two and seven games under .500 in the AL is your current pick for the #6 seed? Which of PHI/SDP/ARI do you like for the last two NL Wild Cards?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I think I'll take ARi and PHI for the last two NL Wild Card spots but I don't have a super strong view there. it's such a tossup. I picked teams in different divisions just to maximize the joint odds, but truthfully, your guess is as good as mine. lots of flawed and similar teams

2:22

in the AL, hmmmm.... I mean there are so many good stories here. I guess give me the Jays because I think they are the best team

but the O's in the playoffs after trading Adley? THe Tigers post Skubal? The Twins just in general? This could be fun

theonlynolan

2:22

What do you think the Mets do with centerfield this coming offseason? Personally I'd like to see them pick up Robert's option because I'm not totally convinced by AJ Ewing yet. Carson Benge seems legit though.

Ben Clemens

2:22

been talking about this one with a Mets fan friend of mine

2:23

I hear you on not being convinced by Ewing yet. How do you feel about this take though? I'm not convinced by Robert yet

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