JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/18/25

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2:35

Kyle Tucker's big slump illustrates why people are short sighted when they say "why wouldn't this guy test the market instead of extending", right? Obviously players by nature are the kind of people to bet on themselves, but it seems people just forget the downside risk of waiting for free agency.

Ben Clemens

2:35

yeah, although to be clear, he's still gonna get a boatload

here's a better example, imo: Michael Harris II

'oh he signed such a ridiculously team friendly extension, how did the Braves do it?'

2:36

well, he high-pointed that extension

(although maybe not? he's been incredible since the break, I'm actually writing about him right now)

Wes

2:36

Yes, Boog and JD both use info from FanGraphs pretty often! I like both of them. I miss having Len Kasper in the booth, but that's a complement to Len rather than a slight against Boog

Ben Clemens

2:36

concur totally

they're one of the booths I seek out

I mostly just listen to the home broadcast but they're on the exceptions list

EccentricATLFan

2:36

Also, in “it’s almost sadly impressive to pull that off”, Angel Chivilli is in the 85th percentile in whiff rate…but the sixth percentile in K%.

Ben Clemens

2:37

i mean that's actually very impressive

drplantwrench

2:37

i think we should crowdsource me to have tens of millions of dollars first

Ben Clemens

2:37

if you can find a way to do that, I'm all ears (and I'll definitely cross out your name and write mine)

Guest

2:37

how devastatingly stupid was it needing fantasy SB (albeit not *just* that!) to hold j.sanchez on aug1 instead of grabbing j.marsee at any point before someone else got there on aug5

Ben Clemens

2:37

I couldn't tell you because I put in an irresponsibly high bid for Marsee in Ottoneu (in the FG staff lead) and have been enjoying the fruits ever since

2:38

I'm super impressed by him so far

Cashman

2:38

Am I cooked? Made good moves in the offseason (Williams, Goldy) and deadline (all those pen dudes) but some just not panning out.

Ben Clemens

2:38

I mean, probably not

2:39

given that basically the same process made teh WS last year

Bal'mer Boy

2:39

Basallo the next Yordan? He shoulda had 4 RBI in his debut without a stolen homer!

Ben Clemens

2:39

i mean, maybe!

when he has one of the top 10 rookie batting lines of all time next year in his full-season debut, then I'm ready to call him the next Yordan

for now, I'm excited to watch him hit

Bosoxforlife

2:39

Cora's handling of the glut of outfielders, along with Yoshida, is awful. Rafaela should be in CF every day and the odd man out is the DH. He must be under pressure from the front office to use Yoshida.

Ben Clemens

2:39

It's so hard to speculate on these things, but I will admit to thinking that at times too

2:40

it's very hard to understand, at the very least

Lowe Distribution System

2:40

Is there such a thing as "pitcher who's hard to hit but when he does get hit he's clobbered"? I'm looking at Cade Povich, who FIP and xFIP think is great, but xERA thinks is awful. How can you be great at striking guys out but also get tattooed whenever a hitter gets bat on ball?

Ben Clemens

2:40

oh 100%

to bring things back to Jeff, he wrote something on Jose Fernandez's tendency to get shelled if teams made contact that had a theory I really like and have believed ever since

basically that it's possible for your secondaries to be nasty enough that they don't get much weak contact b/c it's all whiffs

2:41

so if you turn the crappy contact into whiffs but leave the rest, it'll look like you're getting hit harder

it's not a perfect theory but I 100% believe int he broad outline

Guest

2:41

Fair way to split up the eras of fangraphs...
- Graph era
-Notgraphs era
-Sullivan era
-Modern era?

Ben Clemens

2:41

yeah, broadly

there's too much of it for there to be a 'dave cameron era'

b/c he straddles many

2:41

Someone on this site (might have been you) stated while ago that the Brewers constantly beat projections. What are the areas do they do it? Is it known who is responsble for that? Thanks.

Ben Clemens

2:42

Um, the areas where they do best are baserunning and defense

generally speaking

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