JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/19/24

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Luis Garcia Jr

2:38

Legit 2B starter on a contending team or just a decent player on a bad team? Seems like if he had come up last year as a 23 year old and was putting up this season we'd be talking extension, but since the Nats rushed him it feels like he's been around for forever.

Ben Clemens

2:38

I think he's right on that borderline. I have him pegged around league average

2:39

so like, a contender COULD start that kind of guy, but they wouldn't be super happy with it

Heat Stroke

2:39

Outside of multiple players getting dehydrated in the Sacramento son what wacky outcomes can we expect from a major league team playing in a PCL stadium for a full season

Ben Clemens

2:39

a swarm of kids on a grassy berm chase an Aaron Judge milestone home run ball and inadvertently push Zack Hample onto the field

eline

2:40

what is your prediction for the guardians yankees series

Ben Clemens

2:40

Anthony Volpe will key a Yankees series victory, Yankees fans will call for him to be replaced by Derek Jeter

Ben

2:40

Why isn't every weekend player's weekend? Why does MLB care what the bats and spikes of players look like?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I think b/c it'd look a little weird if guys were using the pencil bat every week

2:41

but yeah, to some extent they already don't, you know?

you can almost wear whatever cleats you want

2:41

Very much enjoy your MLB baseball coverage, but any quick OOTP league updates for us?

Ben Clemens

2:41

I'm not playing this year

I'll be back next year but I was just spending too much time on it

woahBA

2:43

Looking at the cy young predictor, how do you interpret cyp or fip-cyp. If skubal has 120 fip-cyp and ragans has 91, does that translate into some kind of x% chance skubal wins the cy. More points is better, but how much better

Ben Clemens

2:43

here's a snippet from tango's blog on the system that does a historical back-check on it

Every single Cy Young winner finished 1st or 2nd in Cy Young points, since 2006, without exception. None. And even those who finished 2nd were within striking distance (4 points) of 1st place. So the rule is straightforward enough: if you lead the league in Cy Young points, or are within 4 points of the leader, you are the only candidates to win the Cy Young. This is true for the 30 awards from 2006-2020. 30 for 30.

I wouldn't call it that good, and particularly on the projecdted side, b/c the projections have tons of vraiance

but a 30 point lead is basically 100%

DeeBo

2:44

Ohtani has a realistic shot at being the first ever member of the 50/50 club...

Ben Clemens

2:44

The guy is just truly remarkable

my confidence that he'd be a perennial MVP candidate if he never pitched again has skyrocketed this year

Guest

2:45

Where is link to the pre-season where y'all ran odds for every team if they lost their 1,2,3,4,5 best players? Searched but couldn't find it. And next year, please leave the Braves out of the exercise and the voodoo has been very unkind this season...

Ben Clemens

2:45

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-of-looking-at-depth/

it's truly wild how the Braves have been hit by injury

next year we will definitely not single out one team b/c jeeeeez

Braves Apologist

2:45

Riley out 6-8 weeks. Has anyone ever lost the amount of talent in one season to injury that the bravos have this year.

Ben Clemens

2:45

Nothing comes to mind

it's been wild

Mr. Burrito

2:46

I love the Dodgers. I'm wearing Dodgers underwear as we speak. But is it fair at this point to ask if the vaunted player development machine is also breaking pitchers? I know lots of pitchers get hurt, in every organization, but we're at a point where if it were a different team -- one with a worse track record at player development, for example -- that we'd be asking that question. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think it's a very valid question to ask. I don't have a good answer for you, and I dn't really want to speculate on such a consequential question

Matt Damon

2:47

MATT. DAMON.

Didace

2:47

Garcia Jr. is 5th in WAR for 2nd base this season. You're not buying it?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I am not

2:48

I'm not buying his 2020-2023 line either (0.4 wins BELOW replacement)

Greg

2:48

Do you think that he actually meant that the wall would be 350 feet away from the plate everywhere? Because a straight wall creating a triangle shaped park would be significantly shorter to CF, wouldn't it?

Ben Clemens

2:48

yeah I'm picturing 350 everywhere

2:49

an actual triangle park, agreed, something about hypotenuse math

Brian

2:49

Patrick Bailey is a great defensive backstop according to Statcast and other metrics, but he has slumping very hard. He also had a slump later last year as a full time catcher. Is he a full time catcher in the future if he keeps on slumping at the end of the season? Is this just a fluke and hoping he is able to rebound after another season in the books?

Ben Clemens

2:50

If I were the Giants, I'd be very focused on figuring out whether Bailey is physically tired, mentally tired, whether it's a fluke, wahtever

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