JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/21/2023

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/21/2023

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:10

if there's no WS in that time frame, I can't see them keeping him

Jon Daniels

2:11

Will Rangers fan hate me forever or will they warmup back up to me over time?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Warm back up over time almost certainly

This year's team is pretty heavily constructed by you

cool

1

Wrights Back

2:11

Another, decidedly fan centric question,Ben: when should I be buying season tickets for the Mets? Was 2022 a mirage? Statistically it doesnIs their underperformance (on all counts) a failure of coaching or of players who were ideally suited for the game before the rule changes?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I had a 20-game season ticket package with the Mets throughout the bad times

2:12

2016-2018 (2016 was a good time but the others weren't)

I'd say that you should not get them based on whether you think the team is going to win a world series

you should get them based on whether you want to have fun going to baseball games

cool

1

I think that failure of players ideally suited for the old game is unlikely as an answer, personally

Princess Leia

2:12

Help us Obi-wan Clemon-obi! You're our only hope!

Ben Clemens

2:13

on loop in my head for an hour now

cool

1

Justin

2:13

Pete Alonso has a 135 wrc+ while only having a .199 babip. I think this is incredible, and he's not getting enough credit for how good he's been this year bad luck aside.

Ben Clemens

2:13

Agreed

He's had a really good season somehow

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

2:13

A lot of people (e.g., Leo Morgenstern) foresaw Lance Lynn regressing positively because of his unsustainably bad HR/FB rate. Turning from a current Dodger to a former Dodger prospect, Dean Kremer has regressed negatively in that his HR/FB has more than doubled (7.3% to 15.2%), while he's striking out more guys and doing perfectly fine on BABIP. By RV alone, his cutter has gone from good to bad and his sinker has gone from bad to good, but his secondaries are otherwise the same. I know it's a lot of blue on his Statcast page, but what gives?

Ben Clemens

2:14

These fly ball pitchers are always going to be a bit susceptible to homer blowups imo, particularly if they don't have an excellent contact management plan

like, sinker/sweeper to same-handed batters with a cutter and something else to deal with opposite handed guys kinda works

but if you're putting the ball in the air, the hitters supply the power, so you're gonna be prone to blowups

SvenClemens

2:14

Are we at the point we are really starting to see the effects of the Astros loss of draft picks? Or has it been an issue already? The back half of their lineup is struggling and I wonder how much it is because it’s harder for them to find cheap, in house talent right now.

Ben Clemens

2:15

Yeah, a little bit. Of course, they're also shipping out talent to get players, which adds up

but I remember when those penalties were levied, people equated them to monetary because the Astros would need to spend extra to replace those holes

and eh, they haven't really? and so yeah, that hurts

Ethan

2:15

Very much enjoyed your WPA article from last week. I was curious if you think that WPA/LI or RE24/boLI align with the MVP voting criteria. Personally I think they hit the sweet spot on the context dependent-context neutral spectrum but I’d be interested to hear your thoughts.

Ben Clemens

2:16

I don't really, because of the weird "actual value" phrasing

both of those adjust the value, on purpose, and they're good stats because of that

Ben

2:16

I'm sure that I'm missing something here, but how can 7 AL teams be 60% or better to make the playoffs when there are only 6 spots?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Well, if you had three teams for two spots, and each was 2/3 likely to make it, you'd have 6/3 or 2 teams make it in the end

so, kinda that

2:17

that's kinda what's happening here, tbh

so the Rangers and Astros are each 80% or so, that's 1.6 teams

the Jays and Mariners are each call it 60%, 1.2 teams, so 2.8 teams

then 3 teams are roughly 100%, 5.8 teams

and eh, scraps make up the next

Appa Yip Yip

2:17

On a scale of 1 to 10 how silly is it that baseball, in the year 2023, is still rubbing balls up with the mystical mud from the secret river?

trophy

1

Ben Clemens

2:17

Truly, it's a 10

C'mon Son!

2:18

Why doesn't Adolis Garcia get more recognition?

angry

1

Ben Clemens

2:18

I think it's because he broke out when the Rangers were not good, and then the team supplemented itself with a bunch of stars everyone knows, who are now getting the credit for improvement

2:19

but he's been awesome this year

And really, he's been quite good since 2021

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat