JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/21/2023

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/21/2023

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Ben Clemens

2:44

or like, I'm not even a team

2:45

But surely the lack of durability is worrisome

Dan

2:45

If the Orioles spend 100 million in free agency are they going to be good for the next five years and thus get a new generation of fans and make far far more than 100 million extra dollars over those fans lifetimes?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Mmmmmmm, this is a really interesting question and I don't know the right answer but I think it's asking something really important

Should the Orioles be increasing payroll with the specific aim of supplementing their young core?

the answer is obviously yes

Investments like that have multipliers, like you said

2:47

now is the time to strike if you're the O's, being good is new and hot, and you have a lot of cost control in the future

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:47

Are minor league promotions getting more aggressive, or am I going crazy?

Ben Clemens

2:47

They most definiltey are

the Angels are making it a little confusing just because they're throwing everything at the wall, but even without that, I think teams are reacting better than I expected to the incentives to call guys up

2:48

and particularly, I think the O's experience with Rutschman last year raised some eyebrows

It really stings to not get a first round pick out of that, to antagonize your player (maybe not Adley, he just seems imperturbable, but most players), and also to have the same service time

Not buying?

2:48

You think Belling reverts to who he was a few years ago?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I don't know!

It's a tough question

I wouldn't pay up to find out though

Ethan

2:48

Given the limited data the public do has access to really I like this article on pitch tunneling which briefly mentions deception/release point. https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/8/23/the-mystic-art-...

ryan

2:49

re: deception, Kyle Boddy of Driveline posted this https://twitter.com/drivelinekyle/status/1692323265136767008 regarding a deception/occlusion model that spits out a result on a 20-80 score. So yes, this is absolutely done

Ben Clemens

2:49

Lots of ways to look at it

Trout

2:49

Where should the Angels go from here? It's not often that I think a team should blow it up and do a full rebuild, but it seems like that's where the Angels are. (White Sox too, but that's another story.) They do have plenty of money to spend. But what are they going to do, sign a bunch of guys to do patchwork across the roster for the next two years?

Ben Clemens

2:49

i mean, whether they blow it up or not, it's getting ugly

no farm, the current team isn't even that good

Tom

2:50

Given the changes in the standings, do you think the Mariners would like to undo the Sewald trade? Or has Canzone filling in for Kelenic and Rojas for Wong actually made a larger impact and helped drive the turnaround?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I actually think that they would not undo it

they just needed hitters badly enough that it worked out

and as meg has often pointed out, they have a real skill for developing relievers

Phil

2:50

What is or should be a closer, nowadays? Thinking of the Red Sox, for whom Chris Martin is pretty clearly the best reliever, even if they have another guy who bears a striking resemblance to someone who used to dominate for the Dodgers. But would there be an appreciable benefit to swapping those roles, enough to overcome whatever clubhouse effect comes from, I don't know, disrespecting a veteran? Does it matter?

Ben Clemens

2:51

I don't think there's enough benefit to offset any potential costs

Though, I'd like to see the Red Sox use Martin a biiiiiit more in big spots

2:52

but like, those two guys get the most important opportunities consistently

that's the key for me

abhi

2:52

do you have any recommendations on baseball books to read and whatnot?

Ben Clemens

2:53

my favorite baseball book of all time is The Only Rule is it Has to Work

by a mile

Ball Four is also very good

D

2:53

Thanks for your answers on the Urias trade. A lot of your answer comes down to how the Brewers viewed him, which is fine for what it is. But if we're evaluating the trade, I think we have to include evaluating how they view him.

Ben Clemens

2:53

Ah yeah. I don't agree with their evaluation at all

but I think that the trade was consistent, which is important

2:54

I think that internal consistency is at least as important as player evaluation

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