JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/22/22

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Romorr

2:43

Jorge Mateo is having an up and down year, he's currently up. With his defense, would you pencil him in as a starter for 2023? Or, put him in a super utility role?

Ben Clemens

2:43

He's a starter for me. The offense is, as you said, a perpetual roller coaster ride, but I really believe in the defense, and it's not like the Orioles have 75 shortstops banging on the door

Edwin Díaz

2:45

If Alcántara falters a bit and I continue to dominate, do I deserve any first-place Cy Young votes?

Ben Clemens

2:45

This is an interesting question and I have no idea how to think about it

If you're a WAR person, obviously no

2:46

If you're a WPA person.... apparently still no? Daniel Bard has more WPA than Diaz, wth

2:47

If Corbin Burnes weren't putting together another great season, then maybe? But Fried is looking excellent too. It's really hard to have a seaon I'd consider Cy-worthy if you're only throwing 60-70 innings. And if you want to go that route, is Diaz clearly more dominant than Ryan Helsley?

I DEFINITELY wouldn't vote him for Cy, to be clear

The Real Ben Clemens

2:48

Rockies with the big brain (?) move of extending the closer with the highest WPA in the league

Ben Clemens

2:48

Yeah, they were playing 6d chess

Unfortunately, the 3 other dimensions are those loop dimensions predicted by some physics models that don't matter at all for day-to-day life

Porcho Villa

2:48

At some point in his Yankee closing tenure Andrew Miller also came out to "God's Gonna Cut You Down" by Johnny Cash-- nothing will ever top Mo and Sandman but man, that was a good one

Ben Clemens

2:49

Something about Miller's lankiness really lent itself to Cash entry songs

he looked like a gunslinger walking up to a duel

Some Guy

2:49

Not Framber Valdez given how good the Cards infield defense is?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I'm a huge Framber fan, absolutely shoved him on the trade value rankings, think he'd be a great fit for the Cardinals... but uh, have you seen Sandy Alcantara?

2:50

Fit is nice, but raw talent level has to win out at some point

2:50

IF the Cardinals win the World Series, what will the season recap sound like?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I think it'll focus on the peerless corner infielders, the Pujols resurgence, and the emergence of Helsley as a lockdown closer

2:51

they'll gloss over Yadi's intermittent absences, and probably spare a bit of time for Wainwright's incredible longevity

jyokley

2:51

Which team will win the most World Series in the next decade?

Ben Clemens

2:51

I don't see how you can have any honest prediction to this question that isn't the Dodgers

jyokley

2:51

What is more likely? Cardinals WS win or Pujols 700 HR's this season?

Ben Clemens

2:51

Ooh, tough one

2:52

I think Cards WS, but it really is close

Guest

2:52

Suppose deGrom continues pitching at the level he his pitching now (including the 37.0 K:BB rate!) for the rest of the year and finishes with about 80 innings pitched. What kind of free agent deal does he get if he opts out?

Ben Clemens

2:53

I think about this exact question a lot. It's a circumstance unlike any we've seen before. I'd give him 3/90 or something, and maybe even go higher?

But I really don't know at all

clem bevins

2:53

ben, i have been thinking about this for years and am wondering if theres a way to quantify this: it seems like there are pitchers that either go 6 innings and give up no runs, or they to three innings and give up 7. so is the guy that is either feast or famine better than his numerical equivalent that consistently gives up 3 or 4 over 5? My gut reaction is that the guy who is a coinflip is better. at least, i'd rather have him on my team cuz maybe upside

Ben Clemens

2:53

I assume the coin flip guy is better. It's really interesting, though, and probably something I should model and write an article about

Dalton Wilcox

2:53

The 2022 Cubs have the least velocity and hit the fewest flyballs. Seems like a relatively easy fix?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Yeah, just start throwing harder and hit more homers

I totally suggest this solution. I'll get on the horn to Jed right now

Some Guy

2:54

In an alternate universe where Zack Greinke spent his time becoming a position player instead of a pitcher, what position(s) would he play, and how good would he be?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I guess I'd predict him as a third baseman?

2:56

Obviously the arm strength would play. I have absolutely no clue how good he'd be

Appa Yip Yip

2:56

Ben Clemens coming at u. In App form.

Ben Clemens

2:56

Yeah, the FanGraphs app is great. I've been beta testing it for a few months, and looking up player pages and playoff odds on my phone are two killer use cases

2:57

the mobile site just isn't great for those. There are some cool features planned for the future but even if it were just those two things I'd love it

YorDaddy

2:57

Is Ha-Seong Kim a gold glover?

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