JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/24/26

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Ben Clemens

2:17

Eshan Mehere

2:17

how much noise is z-swing y2y.. thinking about this in the context of spencer jones. can he be a successful big leaguer running a high chase like he is right now? guys like gallo judge etc were elite because of combo of low chase and low z con but jones has combo of high z swing and similarly low z con. basically asking can a bump in swinging at hittable pitches at an elite level compensate for spitting at bad pitches at an elite level

Ben Clemens

2:17

mmmmmmm.... this is a great question and I think that the only honest answer is that it's complicated

2:18

basically it's doable, but generally speaking it's a hard way to succeed

because swings have many outcomes, both good and bad, and taking a pitch outside of the zone has overwhelmingly positive outcomes, you can sacrifice more in-zone swings than out-of-zone swings and still prosper

and Jones has a thing going on where he has an incredible deterrent for pitchers challenging him even if he's patient

that deterrent being, have you seen the size of that dude?

2:19

Spencer Jones could be up there with a blindfold promising not to swing and I bet pitchers would think twice about pumping him a 0-0 fastball

basically I'd say this. YOu can make it work with aggression. but it's gonna be noisy, and full of bad slumps, if that's your approach

2:20

this specific question is one I've thought about quite a lot over the years in trying to think about guys who have almost every tool but meh plate discipline

2:21

basically with his contact rate, i'd prefer him to err on the side of not swinging. he's not Junior Caminero out there, where he combines the power with feel to hit

okay as a heads up, I am gonna have to call this chat in fairly short order, maybe 15 minutes or so? Have to pick up my dog from the vet, she has to get sedated to go and will be up soon

I was expecting that to happen later, but such is life. so speed round for the next 15 minutes until I have to go

war2d2

2:22

Re: formative sports watching: did you have a relative that was into tennis? I came to baseball because of my granddad, who was into college football, baseball, NFL, and college basketball, in that order. I personally (having gone to a mediocre state school with no sports to speak of) can’t see rooting for a college you didn’t go to, and I find basketball and, to a lesser extent, football boring anyway. So baseball it was, is, and ever shall be.

Ben Clemens

2:22

one of my best friends basically

best man at my wedding played club tennis in college, and is a huge tennis follower overall

and it happens to really line up with the way I think about sports. it's really fascinating, great mental battles, fun to watch, lends itself to replay

and yeah, boy it sure was lucky that I started watching in the greatest spectator phase of tennis of all time

David

2:23

We always hear about how the postseason is random, but is there a point at which one team would be overwhelmingly likely to win? Like if the 2024 Dodgers squared off against the White Sox that year in a hypothetical seven-game series, could we safely predict they would win? If not the White Sox, then what about a AAA team?

Ben Clemens

2:23

yeah if you're saying like, 80% likely, definitely

if you want to get it up into the 90s, I would imagine you need even more than the White Sox. YOu know, they won series that year, etc.

but a triple-a team? for sure

gillum