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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/24

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Ben Clemens

2:50

omg yeah

2:51

I mean.... maybe!

who are you bumping from that list for him? he's got longer betting odds than the guys I listed

just a truly outrageous class

lucas

2:51

is there a way to quantify an org's effect on development? without anything to back it up i suspect the dodgers get better than average results from their (healthy) draft picks while the white sox are the worst in terms of helping their blue chips develop

Ben Clemens

2:51

I believe Driveline did a version of this that looked at how projections for prospects changed from year to year

I can't remember the exact details of it, tbh

Mariners fan

2:52

How much does a manager actually influence success, anyways? Is this just another nickel and dime move for Jerry to distract us from his inability to put forward a major league offense?

Ben Clemens

2:52

not a ton, but sometimes the players need a wakeup call, and what else can you change?

Brian

2:52

1 team has already clinched their preseason over under…who is it?

Ben Clemens

2:52

hmmmmm.... to our odds, probably the Nats

2:53

if we're talking vegas lines.... I know the A's and Brewers are really close to theirs

Dirk Funk

2:53

Tobias Myers has an identical 3.0 RA9 WAR as Imanaga (and on a first place team lol). Stacked field.

Ben Clemens

2:54

yeah but the way he's done his is gonna keep people from voting for him, plus people aren't gonna have two Brewers on a ballot I don't think and he's clearly worse than Chourio

Brian

2:54

Has anyone thrown over 3 times since the new rules were implemented?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Yeah!

not frequently

2:54

What the hell happened to McCormick? He went from career year to sub replacement level in the blink of an eye

Ben Clemens

2:55

okay hear me out: baseball performance is volatile

obviously that's not AL of it, but I dunno, did you think he was a 35% above average hitter going forward after last year?

I definitely didn't

Laughingstock

2:55

The DBacks feel like a much more dangerous team than they were last year. Do you think that is real, or just a perception bias caused by playing above their heads during their massive hot streak?

Ben Clemens

2:55

real

2:56

I mean, they got outscored last year!

They're way clear of that this year despite a bad start from Carroll

and they project a lot better this year, b/c they have more good players

2:57

definitely a real thing

Hmmmm

2:57

League-wide SLG was .393 through the end of June. Since July 01, league -wide SLG is .414. Is this just a product of hitters slowly gaining an advantage as the summer kicks in, or did Rawlings possibly "undeaden" the baseball mid-season?

Ben Clemens

2:57

last year, slugging was .410 through July 1 and .422 in the next two months

so like.... we should expect a tick up

2:58

I wouldn't read too much into it

BTinVT

2:58

Is Schwellenbach a front, middle, or back end rotation guy? Thank you

Ben Clemens

2:58

middle for me, but iwth a ton of variance

he could be a top guy and I'd be like, okay, guess I was a little low

Mike Hazen

2:58

Inspired by the piece about the Montgomery option's effects on the Dbacks, how many of Suarez, Joc, and Walker would you guess are still on the team next year? If they do have to let like a third of the offense walk, it sure seems like those short term with options contracts might be underratedly risky for teams pushing against budgetary limits.

Ben Clemens

2:58

two of the three is my guess, Joc and Walker, but I don't have any inside info on that at all

I mean.... yes, player options are very expensive for teams

2:59

it's equivalent to a much larger dollar deal, in expectation

I've written about this a bunch before

I feel like I specifically wrote about how I'm skeptical of these contracts for guys like Montgomery and my personal example, Michael Conforto, who was I think a more clearly egregious version fo the dela

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