JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/29/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/29/22

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Blake Seams

2:14

Alex Bregman has a 229 wRC+ so far this month. Is it Dad strength, or has he used some Mon-Star-esque power to absorb Yordan's talent?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Just wrote about him!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alex-bregmans-triumphant-non-adjustment/

Also I think Yordan is hurt

inquirer

2:14

Is there a large difference in injury rates/time spent on IL between starters, relievers and position players at the MLB level?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Yes, pitchers get hurt far more frequently than position players

indecisive

2:14

Should I go see Corbin Carroll's debut tonight?

Ben Clemens

2:15

If you live in Arizona, I wouldn't go out of my way to see his debut specifically, but I'd try to catch a game with him playing this year

If you're visiting, go out of your way to catch it

Jeff

2:15

Myers + Chang is amazing. So is Flour (her coffee shop / bakery) chain in Boston

Ben Clemens

2:15

I've never actually been to the restaurant, but my friends recommended the cookbook and it's excellent

Prospects

2:17

With Bobby, Adley and Jrod as MLB Pipeline's top 3 prospects to begin the season, I can't remember any other season in which the top 3 preseason prospects have broken out and all looked like budding superstars in the same year. Truly amazing to watch.

Ben Clemens

2:17

The only one it really reminds me of is 2018 with Soto and Acuna

I haven't followed prospectdom forever, obviously, but that's the last time it felt quite so WOW THESE GUYS ARE AWESOME

Derek

2:17

How much do you care about award races? If at all, which race do you think is the most intriguing down the stretch?

Ben Clemens

2:18

I like them! I cared so much about them growing up that they have a hold on my brain

I think that AL Cy Young is a really intriguing race. I think NL MVP would be interesting if people valued defense a bit more, I think Arenado is a worthy candidate, but it seems like Goldschmidt has it sewn up

Kingpin

2:18

I know you're not the fantasy expert, but I'm in 3rd right now & trying to move up as a lot of cats are close...would you trade Grissom (who would be a keeper next yr) for Betts (who would not be kept)?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I would, I am a bit down on Grissom's long-term value just based on team construction, I wonder if he'll get fewer PA's than he merits

Mike

2:19

Kris Bryant certainly has had a better career than Bellinger. But did you except his career to fare better than it has?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I did

2:20

They're very different players, obviously, but they kind of remind me of each other

Lofted swings, more power than you'd expect from their frame, defensively versatile (Bellinger is better by a ton there, but they're both quite versatile)

I definitely expected Bryant to be better than he's been, particularly after the start he got off to. It's a good reminder of how tough baseball is

Everyone is good

Ben

2:20

Has anyone looked at just the top half of the order to understand the 3rd time through the order curse? There seems to be some bias in the 3rd time through the number since the pitcher may get pulled before going all the way through the lineup (bad hitters bat lower). Thus, a better comparison is how the pitcher does against the top 4 hitters the first and second time through compared to the third time.

Ben Clemens

2:21

Yes, that's accounted for in all of the TTO penalty things I've read of late

I think last time I looked at it I bucketed it out by batting order position to account for it

it's totally a real effect, though, and makes the headline number look worse than the actual effect

cool

1

Bob

2:21

Mike trouts fly ball percentage is really high. Do you think it's too high?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I do

2:22

I thikn it's gonna come back down, though. Things like that are a bit volatile, and he's obviously taking a more fly-heavy approach of late

But I don't think it's at an unacceptable level or anything like that

Jacob DeGrom

2:22

I've pitched less than 30 innings and I already have accrued more WAR than 10 qualified pitchers

Ben Clemens

2:22

God I love deGrom stats

Tim Teufel

2:22

Jrod or Tatis for the rest of their careers?

Ben Clemens

2:23

post-suspension, Ii'm gonna take JRod by a hair

2:24

I actually had Tatis comfortably out in front beforehand, and I don't *think* Tatis has just been juicing his whole career or anything of the sort. But you have to apply at least some chance that his stats should be downgraded, and that tips it over for me considering Tatis's health concerns

Bob

2:25

Peak steroid era pedro or peak degrom? Who do you think is better.

Ben Clemens

2:25

I never really watched Pedro pitch that much

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