JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/29/22

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James

2:47

When the robots take over, how much do you expect the walk rate to increase from pitchers no longer getting a courtesy strike on 3-0 counts?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Not that much, to be honest

You can run some numbers on this; 14.9% of pitches outside the rulebook zone on 3-0 are called strikes

2:49

So, that sounds like a lot, but counts don't reach 3-0 all that often, pitchers don't miss the zone all that often in 3-0 counts, and pitchers still walk plenty of people on 3-1 anyway

It's not like if you get that courtesy call the at-bat ends in a strikeout

Batters have walked 44% of the time on 3-1 this year (thanks splits leaderboard)

2:50

So let's say that for every 100 3-0 counts, six that were courtesy strikes are now walks

so we have six extra walks, but of those 6, probably 3 would have been walks anyway

so 3 extra walks per 100 3-0 counts

2:52

There have been 5,730 3-0 counts this year. So 172 extra walks. That would move the needle roughly 1%

But umpires sometimes go the other way! 138 3-0 pitches this year have been in the zone but called balls

smoo

2:52

Do you think Stanton will be an impact bat ROS?

Ben Clemens

2:52

Yes

Some Guy

2:53

Speaking of Josiah Gray, is he using his fastball incorrectly? Seems like it's not suited to work at the top of the zone due to the low spin rate and poor arm extension.

Ben Clemens

2:53

Eh, I don't tihnk this is quite right, that thing has some nice carry to it, and the extension thing is just not a big deal to me because he gets a nice shallow angle on it

2:54

I think the bigger issue is that his command with it is terrible

He's just leaving too many 94mph cookies middle-middle

I don't thikn he deserves this many homers, but the way he pitches leaves him susceptible to loud contact

Carlos!

2:54

Is Bo Bichette just... like this now? Or just a bad year?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Bad year in my opinion, but it's fair to be concerned

call it 75% bad year 25% new normal

Mariners Fan

2:55

Jared Kelenic, what does your gut tell you about his prospects at being an average MLB starter?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Low!

Rib

2:56

Expanding the MLBPA to include minor leaguers will have a tremendous impact on the game, will it not? Not just for quality-of-life for minor leaguers, but for the salary scale, roster maneuvering, international players, the draft. Seems to me like it will be huge.

Ben Clemens

2:56

It definitely will, and it will have far-reaching knock-on consequences that I haven't really thought through

2:57

One thing's for sure: the minors are going to look different in a few years

Carlos!

2:57

Is it me or is Sonny Gray often underrated by statheads yet often manages to beat expectations?

Ben Clemens

2:57

I feel like he's pretty much properly rated

He's a pretty good pitcher! And good in a lot of ways that we statheads value, good breaking ball and nice strikeout rates

2:58

His career ERA/FIP differential is tiny, and all his other ERA estimators (SIERA, xERA, xFIP, etc) come in pretty close to the mark as well

2:59

I think the biggest issue that keeps him from being seen as a top pitcher is consistency, and I dunno, if you're a mid-3's ERA pitcher, you're bound to have some ups and downs

But 'above average starter' is a really nice thing to be in baseball and I think he's squarely that

Brad

2:59

Think the last NL wild card spot comes down to which locker room, between SD and MIL, doesn't end up imploding? Feel like both are less than ideal right now (Tatis news, Hader trade)

Ben Clemens

3:00

I guess so? I think the Padres are a bit better, clubhouse imploding or no, which gives them an edge

But both of those teams feel like they're on the verge of collapse at the moment, anecdotally

Nate

3:00

Have you watched/will you watch the new League of Their Own?

Ben Clemens

3:00

I don't have Prime, so

Matt (Oceanside)

3:00

Question about the Athletics. If they eventually do move the team, would they get a lot of backlash if they tried to change the name? Seems like the Athletics have so much history behind the name, it would be kind of sad to see something different.

Ben Clemens

3:01

Yes, I think so. The A's are just great

As a name

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