JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/30/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/30/21

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Ben Clemens

2:42

And no good players have ever been bad in small samples, and defense doesn't matter

c'mon man

if you want to actually advance a case that Trent Grisham is bad, I'm very open to disagreements. But this one is not actually trying, and arbitrarily insulting me doesn't up its persuasion factor

Brad

2:42

What sub .500 team will make the biggest splash(es) this off season?

Ben Clemens

2:43

The Nats, I think

They really need to do something

Appa Yip Yip

2:43

For things like Cy Young, and even WAR I philosophically think ERA is better than FIP because while FIP is more predictive, ERA is what actually happened and like, the results are ultimately what matter.

Ben Clemens

2:43

I can go either way on this argument

It's something I've thought about quite a lot

FIP describes what happened too

Just, differently

2:44

I am partial to ERA as well

2:45

But if you have a guy whose defense was just BRUTAL

ideallsy there'd be some happy medium, which is why I like looking at a ton of stats

brad penny for your thoughts

2:45

do you think stl will finish above .500?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I do!

They always seem to

jj

2:46

What am I missing about Pitcher WAR. Robbie Ray has both more IP and a lower FIP than Cease but Cease has more WAR. Is there a park factor messing with this? If so what is the Toronto park factor being used, seems like that would be hard.

Ben Clemens

2:48

Huh, this one looks weird!

2:49

I'm gonna level with you, I can't quite figure this out

2:50

It's definitely park factors, Ray has a higher FIP-

which adjusts for park

But uh, it shouldn't be?

I have to investigate this one a little more behind the scenes

Appa Yip Yip

2:51

Ray gave up a ton of solo bombs early in the season his HR/9 was like 2 in April/may (I believe) so maybe the formula dinged him a ton early on

Ben Clemens

2:51

Shouldn't work that way, though

Like, the full-season numbers are what matter

Steven

2:51

Grisham was never scouted as a plus defender. ZIPS & Steamer project him to be below average going forward. So if he is going to be a better than average player he has to hit. You say "good players can have bad small samples", but it is also true that 59 games of a 121 wRC+ and GG OF defense in a strange 2020 could also be a "fine player being great in a small sample."

Ben Clemens

2:52

So, here you're actually trying to advance an argument, but if you're going to fold in projections, then you need to actually fold in projections!

2:53

For example, ZiPS has Grisham with the 8th-most surplus value

And thinks he'll hit a ton

Could that be a fluke? I'm sure it could be

But I don't know, anything can be a fluke

2:55

Also, average-hitting CF with great defense is a perfectly fine downside expectation, and Steamer and ZiPS both think he's above average with the bat. I just don't think a small sample size where he's been an average hitter despite a .259 BABIP you very conveniently ignored in your attempt to say I just picked him because he looks cool

Matters all that much

Derek

2:55

Isn't there a weird per-pitcher run-environment adjustment happening in WAR? Well, weird to me anyway as I've never really taken the time to wrap my head around it. I also have almost literally no idea how much of an effect this factor has on WAR! But it could be something?

Ben Clemens

2:55

There is, but that is not the issue here, it's a FIP- issue

2:56

Basically, the more you lower your run environment (with a lower FIP), the more the runs you prevent matter

It's annoying to wrap your head around, but it works directionally

Adam

2:57

Dodgers decided to give their big three starters a fifth day of rest rather than line up Scherzer for next weekend's Giants series. Given that's the last time the two teams meet, is this a mistake?

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