JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/25

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Ben Clemens

1:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I'm starting an hour early today because I'm taking my dog to the vet and couldn't get the appointment moved, so I'll have to end around 2:15 ET

Let's just get right into it

Ken

1:01

What do the A's need to do to be legitimate contenders for the postseason in 2026?

Ben Clemens

1:03

They need to fill in the gaps, basically. They have a core of some very interesting players. They're also starting 3-ish guys who don't really belong as major league regulars, and both the rotation and bullpen are way short of a full unit

I think the pitching is a bigger deal, particularly in Sacramento's offense-happy environment

Kevin

1:04

i recently read someone say the Rockies playing half their games at high elevation is the biggest environmental/ ballpark challenge any team in history has faced and it’s not close. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

1:04

Yeah, it'd be my pick. Seems so difficult to deal with having to play half your games in an extremely different environment from the other half. also, pitching in Colorado tires out pitching staffs. so having yours pitch there seems extra tough

Dallas

1:05

Why can’t the pirates develop any hitters? Look at Henry Davis. Why can’t the man hit! Him and Triolo both are hitting like .150-170 with a lot of sample size

Ben Clemens

1:05

I don't have a great answer for this

like, if I had to guess, it's a mixture of bad luck and bad process, but this is the kind of thing hyou don't hear about until the existing regime is gone

David Engel

1:06

I realize teams have ups and downs during the season. Always has happened. But in what world, do the Yankees have an 8.5% chance of winning the World Series?

Ben Clemens

1:06

I dunno man, Vegas has them about right there too

1:07

like, sometimes your team has a bad series against the Marlins but also is good

it has happened before

Aaron

1:07

Any idea why the Pirates held onto so many expiring contracts? It seems like they could've been worth a couple lottery tickets in return, and they would've freed up playing time to evaluate players in the system. Was there just not a market for them?

Ben Clemens

1:07

I'm not really sure, honestly

probably not the market they wanted

War2d2

1:07

Hi Ben! This is already in the rear view mirror, but I missed your last couple chats: you had Masyn Winn in your top-50 trade value guys, even though his only real carrying tool is defense. You made sure to point out multiple times that you discounted pretty much everyone’s D because it wasn’t something people traded for. Winn appears to be regressing with the bat (lost 30pts of SLG year over year, Statcast x-stats are all in the 30th percentile, OPS+ of 99 and wRC+ of 101), and while Statcast likes his base running, FG has him right at league avg this year. At this point would teams really offer much more for him than what the Cubs gave up for Willi Castro? I can’t help but think every HM would bring back more than he would.

Ben Clemens

1:08

um.... I mean, obviously none of this is provable

1:09

but I really don't think that the guy putting up a very similar batting line to willi castro, with a 103 wRC+ over the last two years to Castro's 108 and gold glove defense instead of below average, and also 23 and controllable through 2029 instead of for two months, would get the exact same back in trade

1:10

I'll tell you this - call the Cubs up and ask if they'd trade Willi Castro for Masyn Winn

Aaron

1:10

I don't understand why the Pirates traded Falter away for basically nothing. There are reports he was a DFA candidate this offseason as well. I realize he's outperforming his peripherals but he's been doing that for a while so maybe it's sustainable. He's an inexpensive lefty with 3 years of control left and has given them dependable innings. Is there any reason for doing this besides that they may save a couple million by replacing him with a pre-arb pitcher?

Ben Clemens

1:10

I think it's the arb thing, but I mean, I'm not 100%

1:11

Not a big fan of that move, though

1:12

or like, it's fine, found money, i don't really think he's that great

but it makes very little sense if you're hanging on to the expiring deals

I just don't quite get their plans, basically

KC Pain

1:12

Are Bobby Witt and CJ Abrams as close in talent as their statlines suggest?

Ben Clemens

1:13

I mean.... no

Opifijikl

1:13

What does your daily baseball consumption look like? Do you review box scores, highlights, do you have any custom Fangraphs dashboards you use/would recommend?

Ben Clemens

1:13

i watch a ton of baseball on TV to try to find things for 5 things

my conversion rate of watching to 'interesting tidbit' tends to be pretty low so I need to watch a TON to get enough items

1:14

i review box scores too, and watch cut up starts (I just watch every pitch sequentially on Savant) if there were any starters I wanted to see the day before but didn't

1:15

I would absolutely not suggest consuming baseball like this, though

it only makes sense if you need to write a bunch of analytical articles and also a whimsical article every week

MoonBeamMcSwine

1:15

Are you self described as being "...too picky..." about your five things / interesting tidbits to report on?

Ben Clemens

1:15

who knows

it's hard to say

I always enjoy the 'no the thing IIIIII liked the most this week was....' comments

1:16