JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/7/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/7/23

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Ben Clemens

2:46

I think that trading Keller would be a mistake from a team-building standpoint, but I think you can talk the team into a reliever trade being consistent with trying to keep getting better

Honestly, it's hard to figure out the Pirates' motives though

How much is Nutting-driven? How much is Cherington? How much is about trying to get fans into PNC and how much is about a sustainable winner and...

Dan

2:47

When a teams relative WAR projections are noticably different than their relative ROS win percentage projection does that say they are unusually good/bad at deploying their talent efficiently or is it nearly all strength of schedule? Or am I missing something else entirely?

Ben Clemens

2:47

strength of schedule almost exclusively

tehre's a tiny impact because we don't calculate team strength directly from WAR

we take the projected statlines and turn them into runs scored and runs allowed per game via BaseRuns with some adjustments for defense

so it's both, but strength of schedule is just a much bigger factor

Guards

2:48

Why do we consistently prioritize contact over power in talent acquisition ?

Ben Clemens

2:48

It's pretty clearly an organizational philosophy, and I really don't know the exact reason behind it

It might have something to do with the relative costs of power and contact in arbitration, the Guardians seem very serious about keeping arbitration payouts down

It's not inherently better, or inherently more immune to the whims of the offensive environment, or anything

SeaTown

2:49

What can we expect from Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo the rest of this year? What about for the next couple years? I'm thinking high end 3s, not too far behind Gilbert, but maybe I'm too hopeful.

Ben Clemens

2:49

I think they're middle-end 3s, but I've heard people more optimistic than that for usre

J

2:49

If you're putting any stock into a pitcher's results against the Braves in one game, you're going to think every pitcher sucks.

Ben Clemens

2:49

There's this too!

Billy’s beans

2:49

Did the increased playoff field kill the trade deadline?

Ben Clemens

2:49

Last year's deadline was wild

So I think it's probably too soon to say?

12 to 6

2:49

how did *nobody* manage to pry michael busch loose from the dodgers, given he's entirely blocked right now? minors are minors and it is a hitters' league, but you can't tell me busch shouldn't be starting 4+ times a week for *someone* at dh right now.

Ben Clemens

2:50

I agree with you, he's mashing, but what was there to trade to go get him?

that the Dodgers needed, I mean

Guest

2:50

Odds Shohei wins the CY AND the triple crown?

Ben Clemens

2:50

It's low just b/c the triple crown is so tough

and he's not a cy favorite at hte moment either

2:51

like, making up 15 points of average on Bichette plus passing two people and not getting passed by anyone, plus making up a 7 rbi gap

both really hard

Benny

2:51

Considering the DH penalty where hitters on average fare worse when batting as a DH and that it would make sense that hitters may perform worse while pitching (obviously not much data on that since so few players have batted a lot as both pitchers and position players), how likely is it that Ohtani would be an even better hitter somehow as an outfielder? (Not suggesting he give up pitching, just wondering)

Ben Clemens

2:51

Eh, I'm not super convinced by this. I think that some of the DH penalty is an unobservable injury issue

Like, when you're feeling banged up, you play DH

2:52

so naturally DH's have worse average health, particularly given the way that teams spread around DH AB's so much now

I can't imagine that giving Ohtani MORE things to do would be a great idea

Okra

2:52

Is it just me or do we penalize prospects too much if there is risk of moving down the defensive spectrum? I always hear prospects guys say 'there is such a high bar to clear' but wRC+ for LF, RF, DH this year is 102, 104, 108. Doesn't seem that high of a bar.

Ben Clemens

2:52

I think we do too much for really good bats

2:53

but I guess the thing is, average bats who play those defensive positions are just available

all the time

if you wanted to find a 100 wRC+ left fielder at the trade deadline

like, ok, easy

so that makes them less interesting to teams

Phil

2:53

Plus it's not like the Royals are playing for anything. If you go to the game when Greinke is pitching you're going to see Greinke.

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