JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/8/22

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Ben Clemens

2:43

Giolito and Kopech are having down years

2:44

Don't get me started on Lance Lynn

I don't know if Hahn has done a good job, but I don't think you can look at this year as much evidence to either side. We all thought they'd assembled a pretty good group, the group looked pretty good last year, and it just hasn't been up to snuff

jackson

2:44

correct me if i'm wrong but the orioles are only 2 games out of a wild card spot and still only have a little over a 3 percent chance of making the playoffs. why do the numbers keep snubbing the o's?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Basically it's because they've played at a .500 clip all year with underlying metrics that are a little worse than that (by BaseRuns, they're a .474 team). If you look at the past performance of all these players (except Adley and the rookies), they've been worse than they are this year for the most part, so projections are taking 2022 into account but also previous years

So you have a team that, when it's exceeding reasonable expectations, plays around .500 ball

They have to play a bunch of good AL East teams down the stretch. It's not impossible, but I see why our odds (and ZiPS's odds when Dan ran them post deadline) are generally down on their chances of makin the playoffs this year

RTJ

2:47

I've seen analysts say everything from the Red Sox were drunk during the trade deadline, to they somewhat reasonably addressed some needs - and both analyses seem logical to me. Gazing into the crystal ball, and with assumptions about offseason moves: Are the 2023 Boston Red Sox better or worse than the 2022 Boston Red Sox?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think worse just because of talent leaving

Really depends on how much they do to replace the players who leave, so I'm mainly just shrugging my shoulders

Ethan

2:47

Favorites to sign Trea Turner this off-season ?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Never say 'once burned twice shy' about me

I think he's gonna stay in LA, just like I incorrectly predicted about Corey Seager

Yo-Yo

2:48

Is xwOBA broken? I'm looking at Goldschmidt and Arenado, who are crushing their expected numbers. I know there are others.

Ben Clemens

2:49

That's the nature of the beast. It was indeed wrong earlier this year because it hadn't been re-centered on 2022 data but it's working as intended at the moment. It wouldn't be much of a stat if everyone's wOBA matched their xwOBA

Using it as a 'how good is this hitter, true talent wise' is the wrong way to look at it, but Arenado and Goldschmidt are indeed making really loud contact. Look at Dylan Carlson for an example of the other way

2:50

Oh ha I read this backwards

Fine, then look at Juan Soto as an example of the opposite, or Yordan Alvarez, who are doing great and also worse than their expected numbers

Wireless Joe Jackson

2:51

Do you know of any recommended reading on the predictive power of the xstats statistics? I'm still not quite sure how much to trust them.

Ben Clemens

2:51

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/40026/prospectus-featu...

subscription presumably required, BP is great though

Vedder Cup

2:51

How fun would a SEA/SDP world series be and how much would Eno get to talk about beer on national television?

Ben Clemens

2:51

Wildly fun, I'd try to go to a game

Eddie Vedder would love it, obviously (isn't he a Cubs fan in real life?)

Bob

2:52

What grades would you give on Cashman's deadline deals:

Gallo for Beeter: A+ (scoop up a pitcher with raw talent, yanks are terrific at developing pitchers)

JP Sears, Waldichuk, etc for Montas: C (JP Sears is legit, Waldichuk nice upside, Montas probably still hurt)

Montgomery for Bader: F (Give up SP depth, terrific control pitcher, Bader still hurt and replacement lvl offense)

Ben Clemens

2:52

I'd give Gallo for Beeter something like a B+/A-, agreed on the direction. Montas trade, I'd give it a C as well. Big return, but it's dev pop up types, I think the Yankees are smart to clear the decks that way

2:53

I'm in disagreement on the Montgomery/Bader trade. I think that it was a clever move and that it's only a little risky because of the presence of Clarke Schmidt. Bader has a career 98 wRC+, decidedly not average, and he seems like hte kind of hitter the Yankees might do wonders with. Generally speaking, you can't have too much pitching, but for the Yankees in particular, being stretched in CF was a real risk

I'd call it like a C? I honestly didn't love it for either team

2:54

but I can see why both sides made the deal

AA

2:54

If Austin Riley's extension had been announced before the trade value column came out, where would you ahve had him?

Ben Clemens

2:54

One of the luxuries of writing that column once a year is that I don't have to think about this

Goop on ya Grinch

2:54

the Phillies have won season series against SD, STL, MIL, LAD, SEA. Many of these were without harper (who comes back early sept). They're doing this in arguably the hardest division. how come it they're continually put behind these teams in power rankings?

Ben Clemens

2:55

It's probably because they have a worse record and run differential than most of those teams

Other than the Brewers and Padres

i'd have the Brewers behind the Phillies if I were making power rankings, and I'd have had the Padres about even before they went nuclear

2:56

I guess the Mariners are a tricky one too

But good news: power rankings don't matter even a little bit

The Phillies will make the playoffs or they won't, but where they are in a power ranking list on August 8 is not gonna be the reason why

Yo-Yo

2:57

Arenado could lead the majors in WAR by the end of the season. Odds he opts out, and if he does, will STL push to sign him or pivot to Gorman/Walker at third base? Thanks for answering my xwOBA question! It totally makes sense.

Ben Clemens

2:57

I do not think he'll opt out

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