JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/9/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/9/21

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Ben Clemens

2:17

I think Toro is great, and have been hoping he'd find a place to start for quite a while

sdz

2:17

Which of the 2021 caller dwellers contends first?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Twins

2:18

Back to Toro: I dunno if I buy him defensively at second, but if they don't feel they have to play Dylan Moore vR, he has to get into the lineup somewhere

And yeah, he's probably better than Ty France at second

mick donfort

2:19

what is your take on E Montero long term Ben? Strikeouts are too high but dude has power

Ben Clemens

2:19

I like Montero, and seeing him bounce back from his injury-plagued 2019 season is a realllllly good sign

2:20

Am I a little worried that his strikeouts are this high? Sure

But if he's wlaking 10% of the time for real, that's a huge development

None of those are even intentional!

2:21

If I'm the Rockies, I'm more happy about that development than sad about the strikeouts

His total lack of walks in '18-'19 were a red flag for me, and why I thought the Cardinals were okay trading him

Big solid improvement for him this year, I wouldn't be surprised if he's making people's top 100s next year

DakotaMcKee

2:22

Might the Mets be able to upgrade at closer and salvage Edwin Diaz' remaining value over the winter for an underachieving ex-prospect like Jered kelenic?

Ben Clemens

2:23

Just leaving this here so Mets fans can be sad, sorry guys

Byrdette

2:23

what is the 1st stat you look at for hitters ? and pitchers?

Ben Clemens

2:23

For hitters, it's lazy, but I look at wRC+

2:24

For pitchers, finding one number is really hard

But if I had only one, I'd look at swinging strike rate

2:25

I have a lot more trouble finding a holistic number I love for pitchers, though, so I look at a ton of stuff

BettsBellingerCaruso

2:25

If you had to extend one of them now: Seager or Trea Turner?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Trea for me if I had to pick only one, but largely just for health reasons

2:26

I'm just worried that Seager is gonna keep missing ~50 games a year and that really caps his value. I think he's better when healthy

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:26

What is your problem, buddy? And why?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Soooooo many things

Why? Because I want to

Henry Marks

2:28

I've done some research about wPA, and based on those values, a home run is worth far more than the wOBA formula claims, what is the source of those values?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Not completely sure what you mean by this, but I can roughly explain how wOBA works. It looks at the change in run expectancy from each event

2:29

And averages it over the base/out states that the event occurs in on average

Max

2:29

You're the Mets new GM this off season. What do you do?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Spend a ton of money building out my front office

Trying to come up with player-based solutions is all well and good, but if I'm the Mets, what I want is a more sustainable system

2:30

Trade JD Davis for pitching, and you can eat for the day. Learn to develop pitchers better, and you can eat for a lifetime

BettsBellingerCaruso

2:30

w/ Trea and Seager, what do the Dodgers do w/ Lux from now on?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I don't think both Trea and Seager are sticking around long-term, but yeah, Lux is increasingly likely to leave in trade if they have something they want for that reason. Otherwise, if there's a universal DH next year (65%, let's say), they can DH Turner, move Seager to third, and make it work that way

Tom

2:31

What happened to Paul DeJong offensively?

Ben Clemens

2:32

He's getting unlucky this year (.219 BABIP could tell you that, and he's hitting a bunch of barrels for someone batting .189/.288/.377)

2:33

But mostly, this is kind of who he is as a hitter. Average underlying skills which means that he's prone to cold stretches. Over his last 1200 or so PA he's running a 94 wRC+ with a .260 BABIP. If you told me his true offensive talent was a 100 WRC+ I would believe you

That's a fine hitter, but I think his first season (and his improved walk rate since then) makes people want more out of him

I don' think he's this bad but I don't think he's a plus hitter by any means

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