JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/10/24

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Ben Clemens

12:29

Yeah, not to give too much away, but I'm trying to model for this a little bit in my free agency predictions this year

I think that teams definitely do spend for one winter with the next winter's fallback options in mind

12:30

there's always a lot of uncertainty, but I think it'd be smart to be slightly more aggressive this winter

Nate

12:30

Is there a split on the website for when the infield is drawn? I know there are splits for when there is a shift on, but curious if drawn-in infield is there somewhere as well

Ben Clemens

12:30

no, but you could maybe piece one together from statcast data about infielder depth

I'm definitely curious, sounds like maybe something for later in the month

Sam

12:30

Do you think there's a solution to the amount of groupthink that seems to permeate most MLB front offices (not counting the Rockies) and how it homogenizes the game?

Ben Clemens

12:30

Not really? I think that's just a side effect of the interconnected world we live in

Like, name an industry where this isn't a problem

12:31

the world is massively more connected now than it has ever been, naturally groupthink is on the rise

Insert Witty Name Here

12:31

What books do you have lined up after the baseball season is over?

Ben Clemens

12:31

first on the list is Alien Clay (which I believe isn't even out in the US yet) for a book club

12:32

I just got my library card hooked up to my e-reader, which has been a game changer

12:33

since then I've read The Fury (good), Nine Lives (meh), Fourth Wing (bad), The Great Train Robbery (a classic)

going on vacation next week, so I'm gonna juice up the e reader even more

Oddball Herrera

12:33

Alien Clay based on the name sounds like a sequel to Chubby Rain

Okra

12:33

The O's keep playing Emmanual Rivera and Nick Maton over Mayo. Rivera has been DFA twice this year and Maton three times. I don't get it. If they don't trust Mayo why didn't they cash him in at the deadline?

Ben Clemens

12:33

I'm very confused by that behavior too

12:34

I wonder if Holliday's struggles are somehow messing with their confidence in playing minor leaguers

James

12:35

Is Verlander just out of sorts from the injuries, or is he cooked? I don't see much hope for this year but is this the end for good

Ben Clemens

12:35

Obviously I can't say for certain, but I'll say this:

I think that the odds that it's over are pretty high, more than 50%

'over' as in he's never a true talent top 3 starter again

top 3 on the team, not top 3 in baseball

12:36

hard to predict when pitchers will lose effectiveness, and maybe he can just find some new adjustment to make it keep working, but I kinda think this is what decline looks like

Dan

12:36

Do you think there is a front office equivalent to peak Mike Trout, does nearly everything very well; all time great; the difference between his team being average and a dumpster fire and we just don't know because it's too hard to measure or is the talent level of the front office personnel too flat for that comparison?

Ben Clemens

12:36

My guess is the second, that there's just not that much talent gap

12:37

That said, the first is definitely true: we do not have the tools to measure this well, so I'm not sure of my answer

Saint Lou

12:37

Will Ivan Herrera ever get a chance to play full time? I don't understand the reluctancy to play him more.

Ben Clemens

12:37

I think that this boils down to the organization's long-running obsession with catcher defense

Having Yadi for 20 years or so really messes with your head, you know?

12:38

That's how you get the pitching staff having a weird mini-revolt against very good catcher Willson Contreras

and Pedro Pages getting extended run despite definitely not being a great major league hitter

12:39

I think that there's just an organizational expectation that the person who catches will be an ultra-premium defender who does everything and also is a pitcher whisperer, and that's been tough on Herrera, who is not that, despite being a good player

Dan

12:39

I remember reading preseason previews in the early 90s and there was always at least one that predicted my team would be in the world series. Now that I (and the media) understand statistics better and what makes winning baseball is better understood it's a lot harder to delude myself when my team is bad.

Ben Clemens

12:39

Yep, totally agree with this

a better understanding of what leads to success in baseball definitely decreases uncertainty

Zach

12:40

I'm curious to hear about your experience with how LLMs have affected your job/life. I know you just mentioned it in terms of coding, but how often do you use it, are you excited about future iterations, etc.?

Ben Clemens

12:40

I mainly use it for work

I guess I like its sorting of cooking/recipe results better than looking through the miserable here's a story about my life before the recipe style blogs

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