JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/21

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Ben Clemens

3:17

Yeah, it's like Dodgers (huge enormous gulf) Cardinals Reds Phillies

The cardinals are the ultimate wait c'mon them again? team

3:18

When they show up, it's like ugh we get it, they're in every playoffs, can they just go home already?

3:18

Give me some Logan Webb love. I know he struggled a little yesterday vs. the Cubs, but his 2021 has been a revelation, right?

Ben Clemens

3:18

For sure

3:19

How in the world does he have only two years of service time? That's the most shocking factoid I've ever heard

Fine, maybe it's not THAT shocking but yeah

3:20

He's been excellent this year

brad penny for your thoughts

3:21

how often does MLB get to see battle of the 40 year old pitchers?

Ben Clemens

3:22

I don't have a solid answer for you, sounds like Jayson Stark territory, but it's fun and in my opinion should happen more

Mike

3:22

Who has the most value left of Dom and JD? Gotta think at least one of those two are goners

Ben Clemens

3:22

I think Dom does? But neither of them are likely to fetch a huge return

3:23

Eh, wow, Dom has been even worse than I thought this year

Maybe it's Davis

Bat-first guys with questionable bats are not exactly in demand at the moment, though

Bobby Dalbec

3:23

Who wins in a fight, two Aaron Judges or four Jose Altuves?

Ben Clemens

3:24

I think this is VERY lopsided

Four Altuves

C'mon, that's just too much to give up

Jays fan

3:25

Further to my question of Semien vs Bo at short for the stretch run, is there an easy way to estimate Semien’s WAR change had he played all season at SS? Should we just add 5 runs as the positional adjustment and say he would have 0.5 more WAR? Or does him having a great bat at a position light on bats add to his WAR total (lower replacement level) where it wouldn’t as a shortstop?

Ben Clemens

3:25

So in theory, there should be no difference

Positional adjustment accounts for the fact that it's harder to play defense at short, so Semien's defense is a lot better at second than it would be there

3:26

That kinda ties out; in his career, he's a scratch defender at short per UZR and a +6 defender at second

That said, I don' quite buy that. I think you could argue he'd be a few runs better net of the adjustment

The bat thing doesn't actually matter, that's not how WAR works, because we just calculate an overall offensive replacement level for the league as a whole

Then do defense separately

3:27

But basically... it would be a negligible change. Even if we gave him the whole positional adjustment credit, like you said, it's a half a win, which is not particularly meaningful. If two players were 0.5 WAR apart at the end of a season, I'd say that's a statistical tie

Curious

3:27

What's your go-to defensive stat for first basemen? 1B has a much different skillset than every other position, can you still use DRS and UZR despite a 1B not really 'saving runs' or having much zone to cover?

Ben Clemens

3:27

I don't have one and I WANT one

Dan

3:27

Does it account for the fact (or perhaps this isn't a fact) that playing an easier position gives him more time and energy to decor to hitting practice and thus has slightly better offense numbers?

Ben Clemens

3:28

It does not, and I dunno how to account for that, but it would definitely be interesting to find out whether this is a fact

Overheard in Pittsburgh

3:28

"Houston and Tampa keep sending nice offers for Mitch Keller." "No! Under no circumstances!"

Dan’s Emotional Intimacy

3:29

Wait so you’re thinking one Judge can’t beat up two Altuves (Altuvi?)?! Unless Jose is The Man in Black beating up Andre the Giant, gimme two Judges vs the two Altuvi.

Ben Clemens

3:29

I'm ending the chat in 5 minutes... but let's have a quick poll

Who would win in an MMA fight?

Two Aaron Judges (32% | 8 votes)

Four Jose Altuves (68% | 17 votes)

Total Votes: 25

Guest

3:30

Correa to NYY & Seager stays in LA, so that leave the Cardinals with Story? More seriously, there's a huge FA class for SS, but not *that* many buyers. How seriously will that depress their contracts?

Ben Clemens

3:30

I just don't see the Cardinals as actual buyers this offseason

I think they'll float some offer, Story will say no, and they'll go their separate ways

Cardinals beat types are writing about how they might pursue Jon Lester

3:31

that's not the kind of rumor you hear when a team might try to sign a marquee free agent

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