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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Let's just get going right away

leoneforthird

2:02

In a bad year for the Mariners Randy Arozarena has been a bight spot currently 5th in wRC+ and Top 20 by WAR. Given that can he crack 9 digits in free agency or will his age and defensive limitations keep him under a $100M guarantee?

Ben Clemens

2:02

100!

um, I don't think so

Obviously he's having a legit incredible season

and I think it's reasonable to say that I'm a big Arozarena fan, too

I think pelnty of FG commentators would specifically say that I am a bad analyst b/c I'm biased by him

many have said that, in fact

2:03

but like, he's gonna be 32, there's a lockout coming, I do not expect people to pony up $100 million in that context

guys in this position - positionless bats over 30 - tend to go year-to-year, or two-year-to-two-year

scottsjunk1981

2:03

You touched on this a week or two ago in the context of players who are playing through injuries and therefore have a local true talent worse than they'd otherwise be projected to have, but I'm very curious about ways in which the presumed IID-ness of each plate appearance breaks down. Injuries, sure. But also adjustments and counter-adjustments to approach and pitch mix and location. And perhaps even true periods of being "in the zone" or whatever (my prior is that these don't exist, but I would be happy to be wrong!). Have you ever tested sequences of PAs for patterns of interdependence? I'm a little worried that the statistical tools won't have enough precision, but it's something I've long thought was missing from the model of baseball described by analytics.

Ben Clemens

2:04

yeah, if you could solve this in a way that's actionable, you'd never publish it, because some team would pay you millions of dollars and make you vanish

if you can solve it in a way that doesn't make predictions, then it's not worth your time - it'd be a crazy amount of research to say 'yeah sometimes hitters do worse or better'

so I think this is a problem that we simply won't see solved in the public sphere

and truthfully, I'm skeptical that we'd have the statistical power to say anything, period

Bacterun

2:05

After finally hitting his first HR at home this season Vlad Jr said afterwards that he felt 'no pressure' about it and I'm not sure how i feel about that attitude as a fan. Can you care about the job without feeling any pressure to perform when your doing bad for such a long stretch? The positive spin is that hes not letting the (lack of) pressure affect him.

Ben Clemens

2:05

I feel very good about that from a fan perspective, but perhaps I'm not the right person to ask

I know that everyone works very differently, but I have done some high stakes jobs before, and feeling pressure never once made me perform better

I think that having a rational idea of your own shortcomings, when you're not doing well, is very good

2:06

and that it's good to understand that things aren't going well, that a chnage is probably necessary, etc.

but 'feeling pressure' is in my opinion not something that tends to increase performance

and if I had my players saying "I felt a lot of pressure to do x" the first thing I'd think is 'boy, if X isn't aligned with winning, or if they think X is aligned with winning but it's not, that seems bad"

JasonT

2:08

If the Diamondbacks are unable to catch the Padres these next 2 weeks, do you anticipate a managerial change in Arizona?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I'm definitely the wrong person to ask about this, tbh

no sources

and this is entirely a 'what are sources saying' thing

Swings Low

2:08

Hey Ben, loved the MVPete article! You mention your perception changing since the trade value series, you clocking any unofficial movement in the top 3 since then?

Ben Clemens

2:08

eh, you could shift PCA ahead of Witt if you wanted

wasn't that much of a gap before

daml91

2:09

Always going to be a tough climb in a league with Ohtani and now PCA, but thoughts on Jackson Chourio as a darkhorse MVP candidate next season (assuming there is one)? He's quietly putting it together offensively and defensively the last couple months.

Ben Clemens

2:09

sure

the bar to be a dark horse mvp candidate is low, haha

it's like, plausible mvp, but not favorite

I think he definitely fits that bill

daml91

2:09

Do you think the Brewers should give Jake Bauers the QO offer at this point before the lockout commences? I would imagine he beats out Ryan O'Hearn's deal at this point.

Ben Clemens

2:10

interesting one

I think it's cuspy. I imagine that they will not after their experience with Woodruff accepting the offer

2:11

I've been low on Bauers throughout the year, and I'm cognizant of that in trying to update my views here

2:12

but I think he's kind of in the Arozarena bucket of corner bat coming off a career year and over 30. those guys don't generally get big deals. and in advance of a lockout, they might say 'hey, 20 million dollars? that sounds great'

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