JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/20

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Guest

1:18

The Braves may be gaming the service-time system using options for their pitchers, but the Mets cost Pete Alonso one month of ML minimum salary by not promoting him in September 2018. Ask Jay, he'll tell you all about how egregious that was...

Ben Clemens

1:18

Bubba

1:18

Thoughts on Mets sale?

Ben Clemens

1:18

Speaking of the Mets

And trying to avoid putting my foot in my mouth

1:19

I think that, thoughts on whether there is ethical consumption in capitalism aside, you should be excited for the team's competitive prospects now that they're in the hands of the richest owner in baseball rather than the Wilpons

1:20

I also think that (bias alert! I used to work for a hedge fund that was absolutely not SAC or Point72 and did nothing similar)

This is different than a PE ownership group

In that lots of hedge funds are basically stock pickers

or bond pickers

Or whatever

Rather than 'take the company rip it apart and sell it for parts' types

1:21

Cohen is, uh, not the cleanest hedge fund owner of all time

As you can plainly see from the fact that SAC no longer exists

1:22

But I have more faith that he'll try to win than I do in the Wilpons

Will he try to game edges? Very likely!

Appa Yip Yip

1:22

What's interesting about all the bunting is that the Jays have been bulking up their analytics department and it makes me wonder if their number crunchers see more value in bad hitters moving guys over than in softly grounding into a double play, or is Montoyo simply going rogue and demanding Joe Panik fall upon that sword.

Ben Clemens

1:23

Bunts that are sometimes singles and sometimes sacrifices are generally undervalued, I think

2-D

1:24

Do you think there's any difference in trade leverage between big and small payroll teams when other teams are trying to acquire their pending free agents?

Ben Clemens

1:25

Sacrificing solely to sacrifice isn't often worth it

Whoops forgot to hit entre on that before

I think it matters what position the pending free agent plays

If it's a starting pitcher, not really

Because that's a market-based price

Five teams will be interested in acquiring a stud starter

Probably the same for a high-leverage reliever

If it's a position player, you limit your market if htey're, say, a first baseman

1:26

And at that point leverage starts to come into play

I look at it as the difference between an auction and a negotiated transaction

1:27

In an auction, seller leverage is far less important because buyers are competing

In a negotiated sale, not so much

Thirds

1:27

The Yankees could conceivably (if they play well) go about 14-6 in their final 20 games, the same as their first 20, after going 7-13 in the middle there. If you're the higher seed, are you expecting the middle of season team or the other team? I mean this is really, of all years, "get hot/healthy at the right time" year.

Ben Clemens

1:28

Yeah, I guess I would say I'd expect the team we've seen most recently

Not in terms of performance, exactly

Win/loss records over 20 games are kinda swingy

But in terms of health

Cueto's Shimmy

1:28

I normally skip around MLB.tv to watch the best pitchers. However, the most enjoyment I've had this year has come from watching Johnny Cueto quick-pitch and shimmy his way to outs. Who are some other "interesting" pitchers around the league? Darvish and Greinke come to mind, though they are more on the elite end of the spectrum than Cueto.

Ben Clemens

1:29

My favorite pitchers to watch are Darvish and Greinke

Aside from that, I had a surprising amount of fun watching Dylan Cease