JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/18/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/18/23

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Let's talk about some baseball, and really I hope to talk about playoff races

Too many Mooks

2:00

Obviously Gunnar Henderson has been great. But should Orioles fans be concerned long-term about the cratering walk rate in the second half? Or just take the XBH’s and shut up about it?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Yeah, more or less the second thing

2:02

He seems to be pretty good when it comes to plate discipline and controlling the strike zone in the long term. We're not talking about Keston Hiura here or anything.

I think this will paste okay:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gunnar-henderson/26289/graphs?statAr...

That's 15-game swinging strike rate, rolling across his season, and eh, I'm not too worried. He looks like a great hitter to me

Smiling Politely

2:03

I dunno if you watched either of Kershaw's last two outings, but Hard To Watch is a euphemism. I've felt lucky to root for him for a long time, but if this is all he can do (high 80s with bad command), then I don't see how pitching him helps anyone. Maybe he just needs more rest, maybe he could even figure out an Eck/Smoltz kinda denouement, but starting with his stuff is a playoff disaster waiting to happen, and one he shouldn't/doesn't deserve to absorb, imo. What do you think happens here?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I have not watched them, but this feels like a scalding hot take to me

It's two starts

My guess is that he'll end up overexposed in the playoffs because that's how Dave Roberts likes to manage

But all over the place in terms of health and velocity feels like Kershaw of recent vintage to me

2:05

he was pretty amazing in June, I think they will probably try to get him a lot of rest down the stretch and hope that comes back

Cory

2:05

Who do you have taking the NL West and AL East crowns?

Ben Clemens

2:05

Let's start with NL West, and uh... Dodgers

but presuming that was a typo, I'll go Astros and Orioles

2:06

gotta stick with my preseason predictions, but also those seem like the odds on picks

our team projections really hate the O's, they have all year

2:07

and even they give them an 80% chance of winning the division

two games in hand and the tiebreaker is a ton

Guest

2:07

Cedric Mullins has gone from a Cutter/Slider killer in his 2021 30/30 season to a Sinker/Splitter killer in 2023. Do most players stay consistently good at hitting certain pitches or do these things fluctuate through a career.

Ben Clemens

2:07

Particularly by linear weights pitch type values, they fluctuate a ton

2:08

for kinda the reason you might expect - if you BABIP .400 against cutters one year, your numbers will look pretty good

2:09

I try not to read too much into those, and focus more on swinging strike rates or hard contact rates or things like that by pitch type

In Mullins's case specifically, he just seems good at hitting everything to me. I don't have him as a fastball or offspeed hunter in particular, just a well-rounded hitter who can take what the pitcher gives him

Dan

2:09

I'm curious what it's like as an up and down major leaguer. You make a lot more than an average American but not enough to fully retire after your playing days are over and most of your coworkers (and perhaps many of your friends) make a lot more than you. You presumably have expenses (travel and training related) that would make no sense for most people to spend on. Short of interviewing a major leaguers you struck me as a most insightful person to ask about this.

Ben Clemens

2:09

I wonder about this a lot

2:10

So in that sense, maybe I'm the right person to ask

I think that it's kinda hopeless to expect these guys to compare themselves to the average American. People unavoidably compare themselves to their peers, and the peer group for an up-and-down bullpen guy is major league players

2:11

That said, the odds are really good that you LOVE baseball if you make it that far

So the path of least resistance is to end up doing baseball-related things

2:12

I bet the expenses thing messes people up, but the 'all my friends are rich' thing doesn't feel like a huge deal to me, to be honest

I've been on both sides of that divide at various points and eh, the friendships that are largely about comparing status don't last very long

the people you really get along with, you stick with and hey, if they're doing well, good for them

TomBruno23

2:12

Bringing the family for what will hopefully be Waino's #200 but more likely will be an early hook followed by 3-4 innings in the kid area before we go home!

Ben Clemens

2:13

Going to milestone games is so cool, I hope you see it

I also hope so for Wainwright's sake

Brooty

2:13

It's been a nightmare 10 days for the Cubs. Are they toast?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I wanted to write about this, but I just kept coming up with talk radio level takes

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