JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/18/23

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Ben Clemens

2:14

long time listener, first time caller, the Cubs will never score a run agian

that kind of thing

Let me just say this: they need to get busy

They have six easy games coming up, Pirates and Rockies at home

2:15

If they go 3-3 or worse, I think they're cooked, because they finish with 3 in ATL and three in MIlwaukee

Noodles Hahn

2:15

Delusional Padres fan here who can't walk away. The Pads have a very easy schedule ROS. If (BIG if) the can win out, and get to 84-78, what do you think the chances are they squeeze in the last wild card spot?

Ben Clemens

2:16

okay so I think this more or less eliminates the Giants, since the Pads would sweep them, getting them to 77 losses

It'd also give the Padres the tiebreaker

2:17

Alright this is gonna take me a second to look at all the tiebreakers but I want to, fun question

2:18

they don't have the breaker against anyone in the race other than the Marlins, unless I'm misunderstanding it. So that means that 3 of the DBacks/Cubs/Marlins/Reds need to finish with 79 losses or more

2:19

that basically means having a losing record the rest of the way for those teams

2:20

so let's call that a 40% proposition for each team

I think that works out to there being an 18% chance or so of making the playoffs if the Padres win out

not too bad!

Andy

2:20

Is Mozeliak already walking back the "we're getting 3 starters" thing? Sure seems like it based on his comments from this past weekend.

Ben Clemens

2:20

It definitely feels that way

I think that was a rash thing to say in the first palce to be honest

Jed

2:20

Got a 2:05pm lineup lock question so your promptness is super appreciated. Trying to struggle bus my way back to 4th place. I'm only separated by 3 runs to move up 2 spots, and a few stolen bases. I need some lineup help, do I go with Yelich this week or go with Blackmon?

Ben Clemens

2:20

d go with Yelich

2:21

although I'm not sure if this 2:05 lineup lock is EST, in which case sorry

Just going down the cue in time order at the moment

six away games for the Rockies this week

Mike M

2:21

Can the Dodgers actually duct tape a rotation together for the playoffs? How do you see them doing it?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I think they'll manage it in a stereotypically ugly way, with a ton of bullpen-y games and some ugly blowups papered over by the great offense

They really do not have enough starters

Sheehan is gonna have to do some WORK out of the pen

SouthernDandy

2:22

Any game where Yordan Alvarez plays LF, Yanier Diaz should be DH if he's not catching... Right? Help me understand why Diaz has been on the bench so frequently. He seems like a legit power bat to me based on results and statcast data

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think that's moooostly true?

I'd like to get Brantley back in the groove before the playoffs if possible

2:24

and resting Diaz probably has good knock-on effects long-term. But that's assuming he needs the rest because the Astros plan on using him heavily in the playoffs, and that's not clear to me at all given his usage all year

if what you're saying is that the Astros are underutilizing him, i mean, yeah

it's silly

Austin Gauthier

2:25

Elite walk/strike out stats. Do you have any scouting reports on this undrafted over achiever?

Ben Clemens

2:25

pretty much nothing, tbh

He's the kind of guy Eric gets the scoop on every offseason

2:26

the one I think of, because I'm a Cardinals fan, is Kodi Whitley. I'd never heard of this guy and then BAM, every public prospect writer got the look all at once and he was a known quantity before he debuted

2:27

so I'd say watch this space (FanGraphs) for offseason updates)

Gary

2:27

Should Guardians fans be optimistic following this year given the impressive performance of their young pitchers (and the returns of Bieber and McKenzie), or more concerned given their offensive regressions?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I think pessimistic, because Jose Ramirez is another year older and they went below .500 in a bad division

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