JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/22

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. Gonna aim for about an hour 15 today, and then have a dentist's appointment to run to, so wish me luck

bighen

2:01

Mets take a shot on Vientos for postseason roster or Ruf or use Guillomre/Escobar or option Z I'm not thinking of. They need to have RH production out of DH/PH spot

Ben Clemens

2:02

I mean, presumably Escobar will be on the roster. He starts

2:03

In terms of the righty bat, I think they can afford to carry one of Ruf or Vientos, and it's tricky to determine which one

I think I'd lean Vientos just for the upside

Ruf has looked so disastrous that I don't see how you can run him out there

2:04

I guess the one thing to consider is against the Dodgers and Padres, who both have a ton of lefty starters, you could use both and drop Gore or Naquin

Because otherwise you're giving Guillorme or Vogelbach time against a lefty. I don't have giving Guillorme time there but Vogey, not into it

P

2:04

Anyone planning on doing an article on the unprecedented season Strider’s having? He’s been the best pitcher in baseball not named Degrom and people are still questioning if he should even be ROTY over Harris.

Ben Clemens

2:04

I don't know of anyone in particular but surely yes

Three Finger Brown

2:04

Thoughts on steroid era taking away from current accomplishments of Judge and Pujols?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I don't think of it that way at all

2:05

The steroid era was fun for me as a young fan

The Judge chase is fun to me right now

It's especially fun b/c it's so out of context of the rest of the league

There's a power outage in the neighborhood, but one house is gleaming

Judge

2:05

What's his final number?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I'm gonna say 63. I think he'll cool off after he hits 62, and that the Yankees will rest him a bit for the playoffs

guest

2:05

If Ohtani did not have the season he had last year, do you think Judge would still win the MVP this year?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Yeah, I do. It's not that Ohtani isn't deserving, but this Judge season is just singular

He's slugging .700!

He's put up 10 WAR by our formulation, and given that it's all offense, that's pretty close to everyone's formulation

2:07

Ohtani have the best second-best season of all time. But he's second-best

Stats

2:07

Of all the stats, I think the 20 hr lead is the biggest. Even if Schwarber hits more than he does before the end of the season, if he gets to 60 before anyone else gets 40, that's just... barely conceivable

Ben Clemens

2:07

Right? It's old-timey Babe Ruth nonsense

Appa Yip Yip

2:07

Ben, your thoughts on the monarchy in general and the Royal House of Windsor in particular.

Ben Clemens

2:08

I'm gonna steal a thought from a British coworker/friend of mine (Hi Ben F, though you're certainly not reading this)

There are a lot of bad trappings of monarchy and imperialism

That's all crappy

The part that keeps it going, in his mind, is that it's basically a shared reality TV show that all of England agrees to participate in

2:09

The 'here's the lives of the royals' news beat is basically the longest-running reality TV show in existence and plenty of Brits love it

Thomas

2:09

Aaron Judge has a higher likelihood of hitting 60 homers than the Yankees have of winning the division. Not a question, just incredible

Ben Clemens

2:09

Yeah, imagine hearing that in June

Even with him on a crazy pace

You'd think wait what no

Noah

2:09

Any chance we get an article on Framber's record? I assume so, just curious if I missed one already?

Ben Clemens

2:10

It'll be a fight between Justin Choi and me to decide who gets to write it

We're both big Framber heads

b

2:10

How do you expect the change in pickoff rules to affect the value of players who are already among the leaders in SB? Will the best base stealers all of a sudden be more valueable because they will be able to use their talent even more. Or is the fact that stealing bases will be 'easier' make that profile less valuable if more and more players are able to steal a significant amount of bases?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think it'll affect a particular class of guy most, which is a high-OBP medium takeoff rate guy with good success rates

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