JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/22

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Ben Clemens

2:27

We don't; that's a cool thing, perhaps we'll look into it this offseason

Josh

2:27

How do you see the last couple of spots on the Dodger position player side shaking out? Assuming Lux is healthy, seems like two spots for Bellinger, Gallo, Thompson, Taylor. Do you just straight platoon in CF/LF or give more run to one or two of the guys?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I don't think Gallo is gonna make the cut, tbh. Great defense, but I don't think you can afford to carry Gallo and Bellinger and in the case of a tie, gimme the guy who's been there longer

2:29

But I think that's all they need to cut? You've got nine starters (let's count Thompson in this group just for the sake of argument), Barnes, Alberto, Taylor, that makes 12. No one meaningful coming back from the IL. Throw in Miguel Vargas, there's your 13

Oh, unless you mean starting spots, in which case I think you make CF a semi-platoon and give Lux some occasional days off against tough lefties

But good news, almost all the tough lefties are on the Dodgers!

Appa Yip Yip

2:30

People talk about the steroid era like it was some sort of weird outlier like baseball players haven't been abusing drugs for decades. Before steroids half the league was on uppers. Every record in baseball is "suspect" bc we don't know what guys were doing/using at the time. Let things be fun.

Ben Clemens

2:30

Totally agree

If I ran for President of Baseball, my campaign slogan would be "Let things be fun."

1961

2:30

That was the last record-setting homer season where the team actually played in the playoffs. Not talking about MVP here, just funny that Big Mac and Bonds were the ONLY thing on their teams in a lot of ways.

Ben Clemens

2:30

That's crazy

2:31

I guess there aren't that many record-setting seasons, but I forgot those Giants didn't make the playoffs

Silly Dan McGraw

2:31

would you rather have Matt Carpenter or Michael Conforto on the same deal next year?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I have started working on our top 50 free agents list for this offseason, and I think you are right to have them in a very similar area

2:32

Without giving away too much, b/c I still want you all to read the articles and boy does it take a long time to both tabulate and write, I think it's close but I have Conforto ahead by a hair

Broken Bat

2:33

I believe the minimum 3 batter rule still applies in 2023. Do you potentially see left handed RP being slightly more valuable in holding runners with the new pickoff attempt rule? I mean isn’t it pretty normal the runner has a shorter lead vs. lefties?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I think it'll be only a marginal improvement, and will kinda depend on the move of the guy. Sure, it's normal that the runner has a shorter lead against lefties, but that's b/c their pickoff moves are better. Limit those pickoff moves and it's not clear to me what will happen. I think relievers who are quick to the plate will be the biggest beneficiaries, really

Being quick to the plate is like a free pickoff move that isn't limited

Urban Shocker's Jockstrap

2:35

Related to the earlier Strider question, do you think he pulls any Cy Young votes? And is he legitimately in the top 3 pitchers in baseball conversation? The numbers say so, I guess, but it just feels so weird to say for a two-pitch rookie

Ben Clemens

2:36

I do think he'll get some Cy Young votes; why shouldn't he?

I do not think he's among the best 3 pitchers in baseball, though I'm willing to be proven wrong. You just have to do it for longer for me to believe that hitters won't adjust

I'm a skeptic, sorry

Guest

2:36

I was watching that Guardians-Twins marathon the other day, do you miss these kind of games at all? I'm the outlier in that I like the ghost runner and appreciate extras ending quickly (I'd just go tie, personally, but people would hate that even more)

Ben Clemens

2:37

I miss them happening with very low frequency, for sure

Unlike other Ben (Lindbergh), I don't have a problem with the zombie runner rule. I think it makes for more drama per inning in extras, which is cool. If I'm watching baseball and my wife comes in and there's a runner in scoring position in extras, she always watches b/c the tension is fun

2:38

I think that's a good proxy for how good of a rule it is in general, particularly given that players seem to like it

But yeah, I would also support a rule that says if the score is tied at, say, 2 or lower, you let it continue as a fun pitching duel with no zombie runners and see if things get goofy

Mike Trout

2:38

Has the universal DH changed the position adjustment? Shouldn't it be harder to find a good DH now than it was last year?

Ben Clemens

2:39

We haven't messed with it, and to be honest, I had a ton of trouble figuring out a data-driven DH positional adjustment penalty when I was digging through OAA data earlier this year

I do think that OAA confirms a lot of our existing adjustments (maybe it devalues CF very slightly, but that's about it)

2:40

But I don't think the DH adjustment should have changed very much, for one key reason: the pool of DH's is just really big. It's every player. Positional adjustments are about how much worse of a fielder you'd be if you moved up the spectrum (or better if down), and I doubt that's changed a ton this year

brad penny for your thoughts

2:40

reasons for concern with recent StL offense, particularly goldy and arenado?

Ben Clemens

2:42

I mean, I'm always a LITTLE concerned b/c I feel like this season has been a 90th-percentile offensive result for the team, but I don't take anything in particular away from recent weeks. Playing with a big lead in September and consistently running out suboptimal lineups for various reasons (get people some rest, get Albert 700 dingers, etc) isn't great for your overall offensive numbers

If they're running out Pujols against Corbin Burnes-level RHP's in the playoffs, well, then I have a significant gripe with Marmol

Mike

2:42

Are positional adjustments fair to players that throw left handed? The only way they can get a positive positional adjustment is to play CF. All the other "plus" adjustments (SS, C, 2B, 3B) are all right handed. Fair or just the way it is?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Just the way it is. I'm a lefty. The world is lightly stacked against us

Lefties get plenty of countervailing advantages in baseball, at least

Dan

2:42

My boss is confusing me so I'm here instead.

Ben Clemens

2:43

I'm honored that you'd choose to be confused by me instead of them

Anon21

2:43

Not a question, but just read the Strasburg article in WaPo, and it's really sad. He seems philosophical but also disappointed about the potential end of his career.

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