JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/22

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Ben Clemens

3:12

like, the most common case by FAR is that they overestimate or underestimate by a decent margin

but they're unbiased, in general, which is good

Judge's 2023 projections

3:13

...have to take into account a 1 war (in 28 games), 5 war, and 10 war season

Ben Clemens

3:13

Yeah, this basically

Jack

3:13

What is it about Bellinger you think has made him seemingly unfixable? Justin Turner and Max Muncy are both examples of guys the Dodgers could do some kind of magic on to fix, but with Belli...are there any indicators of what is going on?

Ben Clemens

3:14

Great question. I really don't know the answer. I think some of it might be that the fix already happened, and that was Bellinger going off in '19, some of it might be the injury, and some of it might just be that he's more a true-talent 110 wRC+ guy than 130

3:15

I remember thinking it was bizarre and impressive that he slashed his strikeout rate so much while also hitting for MORE power with a lofted-looking swing

KMart

3:15

How much WAR does an indivdual game like Yordan's 4-4, 3 HR game this weekend add?

Ben Clemens

3:16

Nearly a win, like .8 or so I think. Don't have a game-by-game breakdown handy but there's an awesome Sam Miller article about Trout game-by-game

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19338735/death-taxes-mike-trout-wa...

LOVE this story

MikeD

3:16

Judge breaking the AL-record on Apple TV this Friday would be bad for MLB.

Ben Clemens

3:16

omg I cannot WAIT for the homer probabilities on that one

3:17

If they don't show home run probability for him every time up, I'm gonna be furious

HappyFunBall

3:17

As a Nats fan I want no part of either Sano or Haniger. If those are the choices, I'd rather resign Meneses for far fewer dollars

Ben Clemens

3:17

Well Meneses too!

Isn't he pre-arb?

yeah, he is. I just think they'll look for interesting young-ish hitters who could maybe rebuild their value in DC

John

3:17

Have you found some way to explain analytics to someone who likes traditional baseball stats but is not math-oriented and 'doesn't get it'?

Ben Clemens

3:18

It's something I try to do a lot and generally struggle with

I've had good success explaining OPS+ or wRC+, the 100 scale is really nice

I've had success explaining the idea of FIP, and I generally don't get into the specifics of how it's calculated

3:19

Just, think about the outcomes that the pitcher has the most control over, when you're watching a game: it's the K's, BB's, and HR's

I think the key is to either use things that are scaled to 100 (this guy is 23% above average, easy) or just not use numbers at all

No one's expecting someone who is not math-oriented and 'doesn't get it' to learn about spin axis deviation or whatever in one sitting

3:20

Just keep it simple. The core concept of baseball analysis, for me, is 'focus on what matters'

Brewers Fan

3:20

Do you think the Brewers have been underperforming their true talent level or are they just this mediocre?

Ben Clemens

3:21

Preseason, we projected them for 89.6 wins. Now, we project them for 86.8 and they've traded away good players and had a few injury issues

Seems like they are what we thought they were (and the Cardinals did not let them off the hook)

3:22

On that Denny Green note (if you want to crown Aaron Judge, then crown him), I'm gonna call it a day

3:23

Thank you for the huge batch of excellent questions, and I'll talk to you all again next week. Have a great day

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