JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/20

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, and welcome to a Monday FanGraphs chat.

Today will probably mostly be about the NL playoff race, because that's what is most exciting in the game at the moment.

If you'd prefer to read about Ryan Helsley recording a save against hte woeful Pirates, I wrote about that today:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-helsley-records-a-save/

2:01

And of course, everyone loves to argue about whether expanded playoffs should stay, so we can do some of that too.

jimbo

2:01

You're thoughts on who gets in, in the NL?

Derek

2:01

Who ya got for the NL wildcard spots?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I had been skeptical of the Cardinals' chances, because they just have to play so many games in such a short time.

2:02

They have depth, because they're the Cardinals and that's their main skill, but it's just a lot of games in a short window and a lot of backups getting meaningful minutes. Those players must all be gassed.

I think that being a game ahead of the riffraff helps a ton, though

2:04

So I guess I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt now

That leaves the Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Reds, and Giants for three spots

I'd say Marlins/Phillies/Reds for me, but I truly have no idea

They're all .500!

Guest

2:04

I have been keeping an eye on FanGraphs playoff odds and noticed something weird. How is it that the Cardinals' playoff chances are over 20% better than the Brewers, yet the Brewers chances of winning the World Series are about double that of the Cardinals? The Reds also are more likely to win it all than the Cardinals despite being almost 30% less likely to make the playoffs. How does that make sense??

Ben Clemens

2:05

So, the way our playoff odds work is that they come up with a team's win percentage against neutral teams, then apply that to their schedule

The Cardinals, for example, have an ROS win percentage of .498 against neutral teams, they're roughly a .500 team to us. The Brewers check in at .545 against neutral teams, the Reds at .540.

2:07

Then we look at their schedule.... and the Cards have three against the Royals and five against the Brewers, while the Brewers have the Reds and the Cards and the Reds get the Brewers and Twins

The Cards have a game in hand and the easiest schedule, so we like them to make the playoffs

But we think they're the worst team of the three by a fair margin

I'm not convinced that we handle this perfectly, but that's the thinking

Armadillofury

2:07

Hidden behind the 4.68 ERA and the Pirates being awful, has Musgrove taken a step forward this season?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Ohhhh man I keep getting pulled back in on Musgrove

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joe-musgrove-is-sneaky-good/

I dunno, yeah, fine, I'm in

2:09

I think he's better than people give him credit for but he doesn't make it easy!

Guest

2:09

Changing the playoff rules pushes for more parity. Is it just me or is that misreading what appeals to fans? MLS pushes for it by suppressing spending across the league when the most popular league in the US is the Premier League which has a few teams that truly compete for the top spot. Those teams are incentivized to improve every year, leading to a transfer season that is often as enticing as the games themselves. I know this is a long question, but extra playoff teams make the league less appealing overall, right?

Derek

2:09

Expanded playoffs (beyond 2020) are bad. I've been open to being convinced otherwise but have yet to hear a remotely compelling argument.

Ben Clemens

2:09

It's just not about 'appealing more to fans' I don't think

There's extra money in more playoff teams

Appealing more to fans is one way to indirectly make money

2:10

Because you get more attendance, and your ratings on TV are better which means that ad rates on those broadcasts are higher which means that future rights sales are bigger

But you could also, you know, just make more games and sell those

It's a supply-side/demand-side thing

Owners are focusing on increasing the supply of baseball rather than the demand for baseball

I'm not a fan of them, and I've written about how I'm not

2:11

But it's not about appealing to fans, no matter what hte owners say. It's about long-term profit maximization for the people who own teams.

SF

2:11

Pst. Your socialism is showing.

Ben Clemens

2:11

Ha I hope this is about my article on the expanded playoffs

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/expanded-playoffs-discourage-greatness/

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