JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/21/20

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Ben Clemens

2:21

We at FanGraphs are going to do some end-of-season awards, but I'm hopeful that they'll be weirder than this

So, let me do the straightforward ones now

2:22

NL Cy: Darvish by a hair

AL Cy: Bieber by a lot of hair

2:23

NL MVP: Tatis for me, though could easily be Freeman by week's end

AL MVP: uhhhhhh

2:24

Jose Abreu? HOnestly I have no idea here

Beeks

2:24

Why is a HBP more valuable than a walk when it comes to wRC+ and wOBA?

Ben Clemens

2:24

This is one of my favorite 'hey that's weird' details

The way that wRC+ and wOBA work out run values is by averaging all the situations where a thing happens

2:25

Walks disproportionately happen in situations where it's not THAT bad for the pitcher

As in, pitchers issue more walks, proportionately, with bases open

And less, proportionately, in spots where a walk is awful

Like bases loaded, or two on no one out

Whereas HBP are randomly distributed

2:26

So the average HBP adds more runs than the average walk

Even though they're both one base

Because of where they tend to happen

FunFella13

2:26

Why Tatis over Machado?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Because their value is super close and I have had more of a blast watching Tatis

2:27

You can't really parse WAR and pick your MVP this season (at least iwth a straight face) because the error bars are way larger than the gaps between players

So it's kind of a taste thing

I wouldn't fault anyone for picking Machado

Derek

2:27

Bieber should be AL MVP imo. No position player has really had enough of a standout season to beat him out, even with the societal "pitchers shouldn't win MVPs" penalty.

Ben Clemens

2:27

I'd be happy with that as well

Sam

2:27

Other than a team like the Mets where new ownership could drive front office changes, do you think this will be a relatively quiet offseason in terms of front office/coaching changes due to the atypical nature of this season? Or would you still expect roughly the same amount of change?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I think it will be very quiet

Tigers/Gardenhire obviously, but it would be really weird to care TOO much about on-field results this season from a process standpoint

mmddyyyy

2:28

Is there anywhere we can see a division's WS odds?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I think you'd just have to add everything up, which is a pain

Derek

2:28

How often do players go MLB -> independent league -> MLB? The mention of Ross Detwiler, who made a pit stop in York, PA to play for the Revolution, made me think of this. Not sure I would even be aware Detwiler was in the Atlantic League if I didn't happen to see him in a random game while he was there. Rich Hill is probably the most famous example of this but I don't think I know of any more off the top of my head... Is this a relatively common path that usually just goes under the radar or is it as rare as it seems to me?

Ben Clemens

2:28

As far as I know it's super rare

Rich Hill is my favorite as well

This is a lower-tier version of that but John Brebbia was a Yankees farmhand, then a Laredo Lemur, and now a good major league reliever

FunFella13

2:29

Is there a strong argument for Robert over Lewis besides 60 games worth of defensive metrics and #narrative?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I'd say there are two, though I'd vote Lewis. One, it's not like Robert is having a flukishly good defensive season. Dan wrote about how ZiPS wanted to call Robert one of the best defenders in baseball before the season:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-white-sox-playoff-road-is-parallel-to-...

He was actually expected to be this great

If you don't regress his coordinate-based minor league fielding data

The other is a foundational disagreement about whether ROY should reward the best player that year or the best prospect who had a good season, and I think no one would straight-facedly take Lewis over Robert for the rest of their career

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