JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/22

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Ben Clemens

2:27

Sounds like the Canadian government's entrance policy is changing as of October 1, so I guess we'll never quite figure it out

Jon

2:28

That's an odd take on ceilings. Of course, he's referring to a realistic ceiling

Ben Clemens

2:28

I just think ceilings are a bad thing

Players like Jose Ramirez in the minors can become Jose Ramirez

2:29

or any guy we look at as a no-power middle infielder can become Mookie Betts

if people rephrased ceiling as, say, 90th percentile outcome, fine

Ceiling just doesn't make sense to me. Everyone's ceiling is being one of the best players in baseball for many years

Mark Kotsay

2:29

Do you think the A's FO deserves blame for failing to acquire Strider, Harris, or Grissom in the Olson trade?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I mean.... a little, I guess? I'm not sure the Braves made those players available, and I'm not sure they would have become this good in Oakland, but it certainly looks like a miss in retrospect

I do like Langeliers quite a bit, I think that one will work out well, but certainly they seem to have believed a little more in the pedigree with Pache than was merited

Dan

2:30

Any chance the Red Sox win enough so that the entire AL east has a 500 record? How about a positive run differential?

Ben Clemens

2:30

so to get to a .500 record they'd need to go 9-1, I don't really see that happening

2:31

run differential seems more doable, though still a remote chance. They're -42. They'd need to win a few games where they get into position players pitching and really light those guys up

2:32

I don't think it's likely at all, to be clear

i read fangraphs

2:32

Is the "Rays know something about xyz that no one else does" idea kind of on borrowed time now that other teams have a) poached a whole bunch of their brain trust and b) caught up a bit in brains?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Eh, yes and no

I think the Rays can continue to deliver better results than everyone else for a given amount of resources, and that some of the Rays secret sauce is part of that

2:33

but some of that stuff is like 'put your best players in good positions to succeed and get them to use their best tools to do so'

Luke

2:33

Ben, do X stats tell the whole story? Are there others factors that play into how well a ball is hit, like backspin, etc?

Ben Clemens

2:34

They don't, and they don't purport to. I don't love the name expected, but they are what they are: they're a descriptive account of how hard, and at what launch angle, each ball was hit

Anon21

2:34

Let me spin you a scenario. Braves win Friday and Saturday to go up 1 game in the division. Sunday becomes essentially a 2-game net swing, because it determines both the tiebreaker and the lead. Can you think of a regular-season game with higher championship leverage, apart from last-day-of-the-season scenarios?

Ben Clemens

2:34

Presumably there are some second-last-day-of-the-season scenarios too

but yeah, it'd be huge

the tiebreakers adding weight to regular season games is a funny thing I hadn't really considered

Finnegan's Seam-shifted Wake

2:34

How good of a shortstop is Carlos Correa in reality? Somewhat related, if WAR sees two middle infielders as equal value, but you could have an elite 2B and fine SS or a good 2B and good SS, is there a difference in which alignment you'd prefer?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I think that Correa is an above average defensive shortstop, somewhere in between his metrics from last year and this year

2:36

As to the second, I think I'd take good/good, but it really depends on degree

Generally speaking I lean towards balance in defense, though I don't have an awesome reason to think that

asnbrv

2:36

Do you think anyone in this FA class has a shot at staying at SS for more than 3 years? The Braves have all of their infield locked up and who ever they sign for SS has no margin of error on defense over the years, so I think none of the FA SSs makes sense for them unless they get Swanson on a QO.

Ben Clemens

2:37

I think Swanson, Correa, and Turner could all be there for hte next 4 years

Correa is only 28 still

That's not an impossible hill to climb

Matt VW

2:37

Do you have a lean for AL Manager of the Year? The Guardians and particularly their youth snuck up on me this year...feels like winning even an admittedly weak division might be a point in favor of Francona?

Ben Clemens

2:37

Yeah I think I'd give it either to Dusty Baker or Francona

Derek

2:37

I agree with your take on ceilings - Rich Hill and Mookie are my go-to examples, JRam is another great one. I'd say those three all blew past even 90th percentile expectations. Especially in today's "MVP Machine" environment a defined "ceiling" just doesn't really exist for anyone

Ben Clemens

2:38

You're preaching to the choir

Another Ben

2:38

Speaking of, what’s with Jose Ramirez? He’s been around a league average hitter for over 3 months.

Ben Clemens

2:38

I knew he'd been scuffling of late but it's gone on longer than I realized. Doing some VERY cursory digging now

2:39

His contact rate is looking ugly (for him)

2:41

He hasn't sustainably swung and missed this much in years. I think his power on contact is more good than great, which means that he's just a high volume hitter. Think Francisco Lindor or Mookie Betts

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