JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/8/25

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Ben Clemens

1:55

Let's start the chat a little early, because I've submitted my article for the day and it's not time for lunch yet so not much is going on here

Guest

1:55

yankees or jays for al east

Ben Clemens

1:55

Gimme the Jays, largely because they're two games ahead

I don't think either team is way better than the other, so record is definitely a great tiebreaker

Feeling Blue

1:55

Has there ever been a more soul crushing, demoralizing and debilitating regular season loss as Yamamato's almost no-no the other night?

Ben Clemens

1:55

I mean, that has to be number one right?

just unreal

Tom

1:55

O’Neil Cruz? Still a future stud?

Ben Clemens

1:56

I kind of feel like at this point, we know what he is

which is a very nice player but probably not a superstar

he turns 27 in a month. he debuted in 2021. he has 1500 major league PA

1:57

I don't think it's reasonable to say 'well he's probably headed for a 130 wRC+ in the near future' anymore

there's just too much evidence that he's probably not

Bort

1:57

What do you make of Michael Harris II? It feels like there's another level in there he could unlock and won't until he addresses his absolutely horrendous plate discipline.

Ben Clemens

1:57

I wrote about him either late last month or early this month, but either way: I can buy what you're saying, but like.... he's not improving the plate disicpilne yet so I'm not expecting it to suddenly change

this is one where he'll have to prove it to me, basically

or well, not to me. Michael Harris doesn't know me

but you know what I mean

The Power of the West Compels Us

1:57

Prior to tonight, when was the last time that the Angels, Athletics, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres all had a home game on the same date?

Ben Clemens

1:58

Wow, that's.... wild

Mike Trout Mask Replica

1:58

Happy Monday Ben! The Tigers have just been kind of bleh since about the All Star break. Of course, they are still right in the thick of it for best record in the AL, so the sky isn't exactly falling...but on the other hand, is there anything beyond Skubal going supernova for us Tigers' fans to really hang our hats on for optimism this might be the year?

Ben Clemens

1:59

I think #1 is a real offense

2:00

like, playoff offenses that have guys I'm comfortable with at most of the spots are not a given

the Tigers didn't have one last year, for example

DC51stState

2:00

Hi Ben—I’m curious about your impressions of three highly touted prospects who’ve struggled in their rookie seasons in the majors: the National Dylan Crews, the Royal Jac Caglianone, and the Astro Cam Smith. My take is that Smith showed the most promise, by being an “okay” major leaguer through about 90 games before slamming into the metaphorical rookie wall, and that Crews has hit terribly but at least showed power/speed flashes at times. Caglianone, who resoundingly succeeded the best of this trio in the minors, has been awful. Is there something that can explain whether these issues are either growing pains or indicators of overhype? Will they be average major leaguers in 2026? And selfishly, how would you rank them as dynasty considerations (priced the same)?

Ben Clemens

2:00

Oh this is a fun one

2:01

I'm actually pretty encouraged by all three, or at least, nto ready to cut bait

Smith is my favorite, and in an article I have coming out tomorrow, I forecasted some stolen base upside for him

2:02

Crews, eh, it's 250 PA and he was injured a lot. my view of him remains 'phenomenally talented young player, let's see him do it in the majors'

I know that Cags's wrC+ has been worse, but I like a lot of the process stats for him, actually. like if you told me he'd only strike out 21% of the time, I'd be super thrilled

2:03

the hard hit rate stuff is there too. I think he's just on the extreme short side of variance plus still adapting to the majors

Bosoxforlife

2:03

Aroldis Chapman had to strikeout 4 yesterday to continue his amazing streak. A great hockey coach was once asked how important goaltending was and he answered "75% unless you don't have one then it's 100%". Closing looks to be very similar when we are seeing so many games being lost late like the Cubs yesterday and most games Devin Williams tries to close.

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think this is why closers command big premiums at the trade deadline

teams have had 3 months to see their own bad closers

Pinstriped Power

2:03

Trent Grisham! You noted earlier in the summer he was having the breakout we always wanted. The awesomeness has continued! (Not a question, just a shout-out)

Ben Clemens

2:03

couldn't agree more

2:04

I love so much about Grisham's game, foremost how it looks like he's asleep defensively while he continues to play well

the lackadaisical body language plus elite defensive instincts is so fun

War2D2

2:04

Hey Ben- The world is falling apart. Cruelty and lawlessness is being branded as “constitutional.” The society I’ll be handing off to my children seems irreparably broken. Anyway, who you like for the final AL WC?

Ben Clemens

2:05

It's grim out there, some days you wonder whether the government, AI, or climate change will do the job first. I think that hte Mariners are likely to hold on to the final spot and help Washingtonians (state, certainly not district!) stop thinking about hte crushing inevitability of the end of the world for a few weeks

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