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Ben Clemens FanGrpahs Chat - 6/10/24

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Let's just dive right in

Scratch

2:02

What major change to baseball will have taken place 50 years from now that we aren't even talking about as a possibility right now (e.g. robo umps, etc)?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Number of fielders, maybe? Assuming there's still baseball, of course

Guest

2:02

Who would you rather bet on panning out? A prospect who needs to lower his K rate by 5-10% or a prospect who needs to lower his GB rate by 5-10%?

Ben Clemens

2:03

It depends on other factors. If we're talking a prospect far from the majors, like A ball, I'd definitely prefer the guy who hits too many grounders. Study after study shows that hitters who are striking out a ton in the low minors just cannot play at the major league level in general

The closer you get to the majors, the more I'm interested in the one with the higher strikeout rate. But honestly, it's one of those questions where 'all else being equal' depends on what level all else is equal at

Mike

2:03

If London came to MLB and said “We have an ownership group ready to pay billions for an expansion team AND the city is willing to spring for for a new stadium,” would the league go for it?

Ben Clemens

2:03

surprisingly, I don't think so

2:04

I just think the travel would be too onerous

2:05

They clearly understand how tough it is the way they schedule off days and such around travel and make sure to only play short series. But I just can't imagine a 6-hour minimum flight for every series could be worked into the schedule without more teams in Europe forming another division of some type

So for me, it's way more about advertising the game to sell TV broadcasts than about actually putting a team there permanently

Teaberry

2:05

Seems safe to assume the Phillies are a playoff team this year. What outfield are they rolling out for their first playoff game vs a right handed pitcher?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I guess I'm assuming everyone's healthy. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl

2:07

I cannot imagine Castellanos in the field given how he's playing

I know that they're talking about playing Sosa in the outfield too at times, so maybe you can have him over Dahl or Rojas?

Braves

2:08

What do you think is causing the Braves' YOY home run decline? Their barrel rate/hard hit is still excellent but they're only 14th in HR to FB. Does some of this level out or is there something systemic?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I think some of it is gonna level out, though some of it is that they were unsustainably hot last year

also it doesn't help that Acuna is out for the year

Brian

2:08

Have you seen data about how heavy-sellers perform after the deadline compared to before? I think we overstate the impact a few subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can think of several teams who sold but played better afterwards - because regression and variance have a bigger impact than individual players.

Ben Clemens

2:09

So, this isn't quite the same thing:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/skin-in-the-ball-game-do-teams-underperfor...

But I looked into how teams who are out of the playoff race perform, and they perform worse than you'd expect based on a Depth Charts rendering of their skill level

Brian

2:10

How would you think a Gunnar extension would compare to Witt's or Riley's?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think it'd be pretty similar, but i havent' done a deep dive to get more precise than that

Guest

2:10

Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, etc.--could this be the most star power we see traded at the deadline in recent memory?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Well, if all of these guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, but even if you don't), yes

particularly Robert, Bichette, Bregman

We're not too far removed from Juan Soto getting traded, and he's a bigger star than anyone listed her

but if all these guys went, sure

I do think that the Jays are gonna have a lot to say about how the trade deadline goes

2:12

and the White Sox maybe too? The rumor is that they're asking for a package bigger than what WAS got for Soto if they trade Robert, which in my opinion makes him unlikely to get dealt at all

but I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds excellent

2:13

On the other hand.... he's never hit 600 PA in a season, never hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto's 23

So it's definitely a longshot that a team would offer that much

Derek

2:13

How has David Fry not yet earned an everyday role?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I'd argue that he almost has, just that his everyday role is 'wherever someone else has a rest'

2:15

if you look at his last few weeks, he's playign some mix of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, but the only people getting meaningfully more PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor

he's getting the same PT as dudes I'd call regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan

2:16

it's just split all over the place

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