JotCast | Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

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Ben Clemens

11:27

other than that... maybe I'd have Mookie a little bit higher?

I might have Bailey and Contreras a bit higher too. I ranked them where I did and thought to myself 'i bet people will be skeptical' and no one is so maybe I didn't push the envelope enough

Tyler

11:27

Not trade value, but if the contracts are the same, would you rather sign Ha-Seong Kim or Willy Adames for the next 8 years?

Ben Clemens

11:27

quick hitter: Adames I think but it's close

11:28

Adames is underrated, he's like 95% of Francisco Lindor. 5% is a lot at the top end but a great defender with an above average bat at short is a really nice player

I'm less convinced by Kim's hitting, they're the same age, and I don't think he's necessarily a better defender

rtjr

11:28

what about mitch keller

Ben Clemens

11:29

Just pulling up my initial rankings here to give you an idea

Keller was around #100 for me

11:30

and never really entered the discussion for that group of pitchers at the end of the list

i don't think he's hugely different than a lot of the 40-100 range, like I think he's right in there overall

the long doldrums times, and the fact that I don't exactly know what his carrying tool is still, are why I didn't put him on here

Mike Trout

11:30

I see this idea a lot that Ohtani is hitting better because he isn't pitching, but his wRC+ last year was 180 vs. 185 this year. Is it really that significant?

Ben Clemens

11:31

I think he looks better process wise

his statcast numbers generally agree

also he was shut down from pitching for part of last year

11:32

but more than that.... most people who put up a 180 wRC+ season are lucky and see it fall off the next year. he didn't. maybe I'm reading too much into it but eh, you have to read things into it

Murray

11:32

If Gunner signs 12yr for 600mil tomorrow, w/ no opt outs, How does that affect the ranking?

Ben Clemens

11:32

I mean, he would not be number one anymore, but I'd 100% still have him ranked

gman

11:32

how much do you factor in the potential of ABS radically changing catcher value in the next couple years

Ben Clemens

11:32

Honestly I thought about it a little bit

11:33

vis a vis Bailey vs. Contreras, and like Gab Moreno vs. O'Hoppe/Diaz

I htink it's far enough off, and the challenge system will leave enough value to receiving still, that I didn't work too hard on it

Guest

11:33

I wanna note that this is probably one of the better written Trade Value series in terms of insights into your process. Really felt like you pulled back the curtain. Stuff like Adley DHing vs Catching, Catching Framing variability, the deviations from industry consensus. Appreciate these notes a lot

Ben Clemens

11:33

Thanks very much

It's always a struggle what to write in these blurbs

11:34

on one hand, it's my chance to encapsulate a player that everyone's gonna read

on the other hand, most people just want the list

so I'm trying to lean a little bit more into what made them end up here and being a bit more stick-to-the-facts when it comes to the player's skills

mostly if you're reading about your guy in a top 50 trade value article, you know the guy's skills

Guest

11:34

Thoughts on Taj Bradley for this list next year?

Ben Clemens

11:35

feels 100% resaonable

two straight years as an HM should tell you that I really don't know what to do with him

Cody

11:35

Appreciate you answering my platoon splits question. My read is that those guys are super valuable in their pre-arb years, when they’re functionally spare parts, but not very valuable at all once they get into Arb2 money. Abreu stuck out to me as an extreme example bc he’s played at a ~4 WAR/600 pace so far in his career, running something like a 140 wRC+ against righties and a 15 wRC+ against lefties—not sure I’ve ever seen bigger platoon splits than that. It’s not the point of this exercise, but I’m always curious how valuations for weird outliers like that differ across the league.

Ben Clemens

11:35

Every year, I start with Paredes on the list, and every year, people are like 'ehhhhhhh'

11:36

so that should give you some insight on how teams value weird outliers

Guest

11:36

Has Julio’s inconsistency lowered your opinion of his ceiling? Do you think he still has the ability to make an adjustment to tap that ‘perennial MVP candidate’ potential?

Ben Clemens

11:36

I mean, yeah

if I didn't I don't think I'd have him fifth

odds are probably a bit lower now? but I don't think it's a meaningful change

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