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Bill Brink's Pirates chat: 5.2.18
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Bill Brink
12:37
And minus-2.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 18th out of 20 qualified right fielders. You make a good point. I still believe he's a better defender than Osuna. I think the idea is if they ever rebalance to five on the bench and a seven-man bullpen, they would add Osuna, but situations like last night, when Glasnow can only get three outs in a blowout, have made rebalancing challenging. Hurdle very much trusts Rodriguez, especially defensively. I know he hit third and I know that made fans mad. I took that as more of a one-off, to preserve the rest of the order when Marte got the day off, rather than an indication of Rodriguez's batting skill -- to which I would wonder the weight of preserving the lineup against optimizing it.
Hippo
12:37
With both Cole's and Morton's success so far in Houston, has it made the Pirates think about their metrics overkill and fastball fastball fastball approach? They should learn from the world series champions who were in their same boat a few seasons ago.
Bill Brink
12:42
I started to do a story about this because Cole and Morton keep shoving and broke down teams' fastball usage, correlated with ERA, over the past five years, last week. I am very bad at math and hadn't run a regression model since high school, but I didn't find enough correlation to keep going with it. There were some teams always near the bottom (the Yankees, who had a five-year 3.93 ERA, were dead last in fastball usage) and the Dodgers were down there too. The Cardinals threw a higher percentage of fastballs than any team in the past five years and had a 3.59 ERA, third-best during that span. I hope someone smarter than me does this right, but I think it has more to do with maximizing a player's pitch selection than just the type of pitch. Put another way, using Cole differently while he was here would have helped Cole, but taking his exact pitch mix and replicating it might not help because the pitchers here are different.
OHIO412FAN
12:42
Do you think the Pirates need to address their bullpen and rotation more closely with stronger added depth? How do they fix the recent struggles?
Bill Brink
12:43
I get the sense they'll let Musgrove get back near the end of this month and see how he does. With the bullpen, they already showed they're looking for upgrades when they called up Crick and Rodriguez (who have pitched well) and claimed Romero (who didn't pitch well but says he was hurt). They'll keep looking.
Hippo
12:44
What about this lineup Bill? Marte, Moran, Dickerson, Cervelli, Bell, Frazier, Polanco and Mercer? Why not?
Bill Brink
12:44
I might split the two lefties at the top -- maybe put Cervelli between them -- and maybe flip them, because Dickerson, who led off last year, has experience hitting up high.
OHIO412FAN
12:45
Right now, In numbered order, what is the to do list for the Pirates, so that they can keep winning and potentially win the NL Central Crown?
Bill Brink
12:45
1. Stabilize the rotation. 2. Get the bullpen in order.
Wayward
12:45
A lot of the Triple A SP's are struggling but most of the AA guys have been lights out.  Anyone down at AA that could make the jump to the BUCS by year end?
Bill Brink
12:46
It's true, Altoona has quite the rotation. Keller could zoom his way to Indy and up in September in theory, but the way the Pirates handled top prospects and with Super 2 and service time deadlines, I highly doubt they do it.
Bake
12:46
At this point in their career's is Dickerson an up grade over Cutch?  Or is he just in the midst of a hot first half like last season, when he was an All star and then faded?
Bill Brink
12:47
I think it's in the middle. Dickerson is a good player and has always hit when healthy; McCutchen was a great player for five years and a productive one for almost his entire career. So while Dickerson now is producing better than McCutchen did last April, I don't think we can draw a conclusion from that about their careers.
Hippo
12:49
Be honest Bill do you think Ray Searage is a good pitching coach? A top 10 pitching coach? Because I sure don't.
Bill Brink
12:50
In the course of my reporting, I've spoken to other pitching coaches, and players who come from other organizations who have worked with other coaches, but not enough to have a definitive ranking other than by outcome. I think he's a good one, and I know players and the industry respect him.
Too Tall Ball
12:50
I heard that Minnesota has played inter-division rival Detroit once so far this year (so, yes, some snow outs) and none against KC, but the Bucs played Detroit 6 times (!!!) in April. Can we request a drug test for the MLB scheduling gurus? I HATE this ridiculous inter-league scheduling. We need to play the AL central less and the NL east more!!
Bill Brink
12:51
I, for one, love it, because I loved having two rainouts and a doubleheader in Detroit the night before the day-game home opener.
Too Tall Ball
12:51
The Bucs record since J-Hay’s injury (6-9) says a lot about how valuable he is to this team, both offensively and defensively.  With Hayes & Tucker at AA and Newman at Indy as our top infield position players in the minors, I feel like the Bucs are in a world of hurt to find a good 2nd sacker internally in the near future. Do you share that concern?
Bill Brink
12:52
I might have until I started drilling down on Kevin Kramer, who I think can be a solid option there. Hits for a little bit of power, can play second and short. No prospect is a sure thing but I feel better about it with him in the fold.
Hippo
12:52
Why can't Neal Huntington draft and develop? His drafting has been awful and you know it Bill.
I hope you can be honest here, do you think it was the right decision to have extended both Hurdle and Huntington for 4 more years? After back to back losing seasons and poor drafting by NH?
Bill Brink
12:56
Two broad questions; I'll do my best to answer them briefly here. The old line used to be, "He inherited McCutchen and Walker," which was entirely true. That no longer applies. He's had hits -- he drafted Kingham, got Bell to sign when he swore he wouldn't, drafted Kuhl -- and misses, like the 2009 draft class and Appel (I applaud the gumption of challenging the new rules but the result was you didn't get a first-round pick, though he did turn that into Meadows). It might not be among the top in the game but I don't think it's among the bottom either. As for him and Hurdle, keep in mind: Hurdle can't play players he doesn't have, Huntington can't spend money he doesn't have.
Lightning round. Go.
OHIO412FAN
12:56
Do you think this team is legit? If so, how can and do they continue the winning all season long?
Bill Brink
12:58
I do think they're legit. Every key guy but Harrison has been healthy so far, and I think the rotation could trend upward. Some bullpen internal improvement/help, better results from Kuhl, and help from Kingham/Musgrove could keep them going. All season long will depend on health, but it's possible.
Hippo
12:59
Greg Brown kept saying on Sunday that Hurdle wouldn't have let Kingham finish the perfect game if it came to that and he was over 110 pitches? That would be awful on every level. Do you agree with that? If he had a perfect game through 8 and was at 108 pitches, you think Hurdle would have taken him out? There would be a huge national outcry let alone a local one imo.
Bill Brink
1:00
Hurdle's obligation is to Kingham and keeping him healthy rather than the perfect game. It's like when Roberts took Stripling out with the no-no intact. It would have depended on high-stress pitches -- of which there weren't many -- pitches per inning, fatigue, etc.
That's it for today, thanks for all the great questions!
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