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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1-14-2020
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Brad Johnson
3:59
Let's get things rolling.
Cito's Mustache
4:01
What’s your prediction on Alex Cora’s punishment - has to be harsher than Hinch’s, right?
Brad Johnson
4:02
More than one year seems pretty extreme though. Perhaps 2 "sentences" and thus 2 years?
I'm of the opinion that the Astros penalty was light, but it's not the suspensions to Hinch and Luhnow that were soft.
4:03
And they did basically issue the maximum allowed penalties.
Vic
4:03
How many times out of 10 do you take deGrom over Cole?
Brad Johnson
4:03
Zero.
4:04
I really like deGrom. But when we're talking first round pitchers, I think Cole is clearly better.
4:05
And unless you're in like 25 leagues, I don't think you'll have enough Cole exposures to justify a diversification.
You're going to have some deGrom exposures anyway.
Vic
4:05
Does Teoscar deserve a weekly start in a 5 OF 15 team mixed?
Brad Johnson
4:05
I think that's a cautious yes as of today
With the caveat it could flip to a no with little warning
Vic
4:06
How many times out of 10 do you pick Bregman over Arenado?
Brad Johnson
4:06
That's a little trickier as the statistical distribution is actually subtly different
In OBP 10 out of 10.
In AVG, I could see finding space for a few Arenados.
Alec
4:06
17 tm 5x5 i inherited Morton, who is my young position player target??
Brad Johnson
4:07
Morton+ for Albies?
4:08
There's really no limit to your choices. Find the owners who legit like Morton as an off-brand ace. Figure out which of those have young studs who are also expendable. Then proceed.
Cito's Mustache
4:08
Is there any analysis we can engage in to try and identify hitters who might suffer the most if the bouncy ball goes away this year? IE. looking at 2019 increases in ISO or HR/FB% without a change in launch angle or avg. fly ball distance?
Brad Johnson
4:09
That's a good question for Alex Chamberlain @dolphhauldhagen
4:10
He'll be able to answer it better than me. You're on the right track though. You want to find the guys with improved outputs whose inputs didn't change.
Johnnt5Alive
4:10
Aaron Nola - bounce back? got him at $27 in NL only, and while he might go for a little more or a little less, there's not really value there at that price unless he goes back to 2017-2018
Brad Johnson
4:10
I think he's one of the guys who really struggled with the smoother ball
Had his worst command year by miles.
4:11
I'd like to say he adjusted as the year went on, but there isn't much evidence that's the case.
Arnold
4:11
Hey Brad! I just joined a dynasty startup league, 16 teams with 30 mlb 20 milb rosters. I've decided I want to draft to win this year -- so am focusing on major leaguers, young if possible but willing to take vets who come at a value. In these conditions, is there really any reason to take a single prospect before my MLB roster is completely filled out?
Brad Johnson
4:12
I always recommend focusing on best overall value. That said, to win in year one usually does require a single-minded focus. It can help to have a few vaunted prospects on hand to load up at the trade deadline.
So yes, there's a reason - facilitating future trades. But you've got to spike those picks.
which sox tho
4:12
odds Cora gets sacked? gotta be pretty much a slam dunk, no?
Brad Johnson
4:13
Pretty high, yes.
Beltran
4:13
...this is not going to help my HOF case. But will I get fired?
Brad Johnson
4:13
The indignation about Beltran's role seems firewalled to a small portion of baseball twitter right now.
Seems like it'll disappear under the rug
Bucks for Buxton
4:14
Hey Brad. Since you're asking for Keeper Questions, what about Byron Buxton in my AL Only (OBP) for $18?
Brad Johnson
4:14
Ah that's difficult. My impression is he has brain damage and is thus a bad investment. But I might still throw the dice for $18 depending on the league depth and opportunity costs.
4:15
If you have an embarrassment of riches, I'd let him go. Or try to trade him.
Dr. Baller
4:15
Thoughts on Sonny Gray for 2020? Regression is obviously to be expected, but will he likely be good enough to be a solid SP2 in deep leagues if your ace is a top five guy?
Brad Johnson
4:15
Yes, I think he'll be solid. Home runs are always a threat at GABP.
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