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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1-14-2020
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tony armas
4:16
people have been stealing signs forever. wouldn't it just be easier to put the responsibility on the team to figure out better signs?
Brad Johnson
4:16
Eh, there's stealing signs and there's using a multi-stage surveillance operation with advance scouts, television camera, in-dugout monitors, and a wearable signalling system
4:17
If you're talking about the runner on second tapping his helmet to signal curve ball, yes, that's on the battery.
Yordan Alvarez's Mom
4:18
How high would/should Yordan Alvarez go in a fresh dynasty startup that includes OBP/SLG categories?  Is top 10 too high?
Brad Johnson
4:18
Yordan is one of the hardest players to rate. I do think top 10 is too aggressive, but I also worry I'm flat out wrong.
4:19
I still regret taking Adames over him last year. Thought he'd last one more round. Also thought more of Adames.
Jon
4:19
What do you see as a reasonable expectation for Amed Rosario, stat-wise, this year? Do you think he will be more or less valuable than Adalberto Mondesi?
Brad Johnson
4:19
Substantially less valuable.
With the caveat that Mondesi does have more injury risk as the shoulder issue is the sort that can recur. However, his injury risk is often overstated relative to average.
4:20
Rosario is one of the most embarrassing leadoff hitters in the league so I expect to see him switched to 7th or 8th.
I'll say mid-teens HR, 15-25 SB, a .275 AVG and somewhere around 145 R+RBI
4:21
Solid player for fantasy even if the real world utility plays down a bit.
Usually these guys are discounted but Rosario is not.
shaner
4:21
You think David Fletcher has any value in a FGPts ottoneu league?
Brad Johnson
4:21
Yes, he's a great $1 guy
I love these 4+ pts/g, play anywhere types
4:22
You grab 'em for a dollar and use them 35 or 40 times. Helps you hit your GP limits. Can net out to 100 or 200 points you otherwise would have lost.
Logan
4:23
How far in ADP would Arenado drop if traded to a less favorable hitting environment like St. Louis?
Brad Johnson
4:23
Do you want me to gauge public reaction or what should happen?
I'd maybe drop him a spot or two.
4:24
I think the public will panic and drop him a handful or two.
4:25
It really doesn't strike me as an especially large change
Karl
4:25
From a team owner's perspective, Luhnow went from one of the most coveted baseball ops guy in the league to suddenly back on the job market (give or take 12 months). Would you expect that demand for his services will remain very high when the time comes?
Brad Johnson
4:25
So that's going to be up to whatever specific owners need a GM at the time.
He has a... reputation among those he's worked with
4:26
Usually, somebody in this situation is "rehabilitated" by joining as an adviser then kinda backdooring their way into a real role.
4:27
Based on the stories I've heard, I'm not sure that'll work with Luhnow. We may need an owner willing to hand him the keys.
chet
4:27
any closer flyers to take in an upcoming draft?
Brad Johnson
4:27
Lots. So many. I'll be writing them up before long.
Quadrangular
4:28
Hoskins definitely struggled last season. I've watched him pull out of slumps a few times, but I feel like the overall trend is heading in the wrong direction. Have we already seen peak Rhys?
Brad Johnson
4:28
Well, I don't think he can top his debut. So in that sense yes. I do think he has a better full season in his bag of tricks.
Huffin Gas
4:28
What kind of Luhnow stories have you heard?  The unpublished but still very bad kind?
Brad Johnson
4:29
Yes, shouldn't speak to them specifically. And they are hearsay even if I trust the sources.
SparkyMcGuffey
4:29
If Cole, Degrom, Scherzer, Verl are off the board, who you got?
Brad Johnson
4:29
2020 only league? Sale or Kershaw probably. Flaherty maybe.
4:30
When I wade into the ace pool, I tend to go very boring i.e. whoever the market is ascribing some nebulous negative to.
That was Strasburg last year fwiw.
Sometimes it really works. Sometimes it does not.
Dylan
4:31
Debating on acquiring and then keeping Dylan Cease. He could break out but there's also concern. Is he worth the gamble? He's part of the return that's sending off a top SP.
Brad Johnson
4:31
Cease probably has one of the widest spreads of plausible outcomes.
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