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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1-15-2019
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Brad Johnson
4:13
If he takes that step forward, he's a top 3 pick in every format.
108-54 with a 24 Man Roster
4:13
Dynasty points league: name three SP you would target if if you are trading Eugenio Suarez.
Brad Johnson
4:14
Any ace not named Chris Sale?
The older aces should be available because they're... older. The younger aces should be available because pitchers break constantly
4:15
When trading a hitter for a pitcher in dynasty, the pitcher should be somewhere between 20 and 40% better than the hitter.
In general, there are specific scenarios where that's not true. And it breaks down at the extremes (i.e. Sale or scrubs)
rpo
4:15
In Ottoneu points, is $50 fair value (generally) to keep Machado?
Brad Johnson
4:15
You don't HAVE to keep him at this price if you have better values available
4:16
And I don't mean a bunch of Brandon Nimmos for $5.
Like if you're between Machado or Lindor for $50, you keep Lindor. But if you're between Machado and $50 to draft guys, keep Machado.
Stinky Cheddar
4:17
I've been offered Luzardo for my Musgrove... I should be a playoff team this year. Do I take that chance? I should have enough pitching to get by without Musgrove buttttt - he also looks primed for a breakout.
Brad Johnson
4:17
I too like Musgrove. Let me look into this a little more.
4:18
So because they're pitchers, I'm not especially worried about Musgrove being 5 years older
I'd project roughly the same number of innings from both over the next 5+ years
And I don't care about 2025 as a rule
4:19
This is a really tough spot. I think it's a taut offer, meaning you can take it or leave it and not feel bad.
4:20
I like to think about these from the perspective of asset diversification
Musgrove is solid and could improve to be a better-than-Glob sub-ace
Luzardo could be anything from a reliever to an ace
4:21
If you have other Musgroves or can access them, take Luzardo. And vice versa. If you already have Forrest Whitley but fringy MLB pitching, maybe pass on Luzardo.
Geroge
4:21
Why do I value the players on my roster more highly than I would if they were on someone else's roster? And how can I fix myself?
Brad Johnson
4:22
This is a very common psychological/behavioral phenomenon called the endowment effect
Studies find that if you give something to somebody, they want more in exchange for it than if somebody else has it.
4:23
The best you can do is be aware of it. Generally, players end up on your roster because you already like them more than others.
Masked Hinchman
4:23
Any positions you plan to prioritize/reach a little in drafts this year to ensure getting the last guy or two in a tier? 1B, SP and/or Closer?
Brad Johnson
4:24
In a snake, I'll put more effort into early SP. Closers tend to float my way more often in snakes too.
I almost exclusively play auctions though...
And in those, I tend to avoid paying for pitchers unless they're going cheaply
Ryan
4:24
Re: Endowment effect, it doesn't work for every trade, but try thinking through whether you would do the trade in reverse.
Geroge
4:25
Fangraphs points - you prefer $30 Seager or $8 Dejong as your everyday SS?
Brad Johnson
4:25
Gimme Seager
That's the one format that really rewards his style of hitting
Jerry B
4:25
Do you drink while you draft?
Brad Johnson
4:25
Usually
William
4:25
Do you like Puig in Cincinnati this season?  Also on Dave Dahl, I've seen some very aggressive projections for him, what are your thoughts?  Thanks.
Brad Johnson
4:26
Dahl is one of those weird guys for me
Every so often, a player I've hyped for a long time suddenly turns way too widely liked
He's just a fringy third outfielder with some Coors Field help
4:27
At least at this stage of his development.
I do think Cincy will help Puig
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