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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 1-16-2018
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Brad Johnson
2:46
Hey folks, I received SO many questions already so I definitely won't get to all of them. If you asked a bunch, I'm likely to only answer the one that most interests me. Let's get started.
Overpaying
2:46
How much would you be willing to give up for Shohei Ohtani if you can win this year? 2 Top 10 prospects? 3 Top 20?
Brad Johnson
2:47
That's so context dependent. In a 20 team dynasty, you can trade one top prospect (Acuna) for something like Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Kluber
In a 10 team format, prospects are super fungible.
2:48
That said, Ohtani is just an older top prospect. I wouldn't pay more than one top 10 guy and some sweetener.
Biscuit
2:48
Seems like Berrios is a good bet to outperform his FG projections, no?
Brad Johnson
2:49
I don't know, they look pretty spot on to me. He certainly has serious upside volatility, but be careful about buying into him as an actualized stud. Expect inconsistency
Tommy
2:50
How do you approach extensions in dynasty leagues? Thinking mostly about 'pre-prime' guys like Buxton, Bregman, Mazara, etc. Forgo future and keep them cheap to win now or lock them up with slight savings to market value?
Brad Johnson
2:51
I don't actually have any contract leagues so I'm not the best for advice. In general, in probably depends on your league size and team composition. The smaller the league, the more inclined I'd be to avoid long term commitments.
Andy
2:51
How much does the trade to HOU affect Cole's value?  Was desperate for a SP last year and reached for him in round 4 of a 12 team league.  Is this about where his value is now?
Brad Johnson
2:52
That's a bit early for my taste. I don't think the trade does much if anything to his value. Losing PNC is offset by gaining the Houston offense.
resumeman
2:52
Hi Brad, thanks for the Chat. I've got several prospects on my Scoresheet keeper league. I can keep them by surrendering draft picks at the *end* of the draft, so around picks 32-35. The guys I'm on the fence about are James Kaprielian, Anthony Alford, Zack Collins, and Blake Rutherford. Do you think any/all are worth surrendering a late pick? Thanks!
Brad Johnson
2:53
Those are all flier quality prospect. I imagine you're looking at similar assets in rounds 32-35. Keep the ones you personally like.
Jay
2:53
With power being a little more abundant because of the ball or launch angle guys, what tier of 1B would you put Rhys Hoskins and Matt Olson in? If you're just looking for power/OBP, would it make sense to spend a little less on those two rather than pay big money for 2nd tier of guys like a Rizzo, Smoak, Bellinger (non-plus batting average guys)?
Brad Johnson
2:53
Interesting that you list Smoak as a 2nd tier guy and Hoskins as a value. Expect those valuations to flip by the time draft season rolls around.
2:55
In general, you should be aware of your opportunity costs when making a pick. If there are 7 Hoskins-like options but only one ace pitcher, take the ace (assuming it makes sense with your previous picks). Same goes for SB guys.
Since we think power will be super common, you can be a little more cavalier about waiting on it.
Buff
2:57
NL only, Altherr or Dahl?
Brad Johnson
2:57
For 2018, I'll take Aaron Altherr. Dahl is probably a better long term bet, but he has to prove health and effectiveness. Altherr just needs to play.
Red Foreman
2:57
What are your thoughts on Luis Castillo going forward?
Brad Johnson
2:58
I'm a big fan of what he showed us, but I'm not 100% convinced he's a big GB guy like he showed last season.
2:59
And if those regress heavily towards league average, you're looking at an interesting 4.00 ERA pitcher. His current ADP is basically an average of all the possible good outcomes while ignoring all the bad.
I'm not going to get any new shares.
Jumanji Laurasia
2:59
Which Orioles pitcher are you most bullish on for this season?
Brad Johnson
3:00
Orioles pitcher? That's a rotation I habitually avoid like the plague.
Well, there are really only 2 candidates unless you want to talk about Brach, Givens, and O'Day - any of whom are fine, uninspiring closers.
3:01
Gausman seems to suck in the first half every year. I'll wait for his owner to quit on him. Bundy isn't a good fit for the division with his fly ball arsenal. He belongs in AT&T or PNC Park.
Bob the Rebuilder
3:01
Which side would you prefer? C Santana $22 or Choo $9, Pomeranz $4
Brad Johnson
3:02
Is neither an option? I'll take $4 Pomeranz as the only keepable asset.
Tyler
3:02
Kevin Kiermaier...overall thoughts on him this year?
Brad Johnson
3:03
KK is one of those guys whose projection always draws my attention. Someday, he'll have a career year. As long as he's cheap, keep buying the easy 5 cat production
Larry Biggersby
3:03
Should I be worried about Charlie Morton with the Cole addition and his post-season talk about retirement?
Brad Johnson
3:03
Brad Peacock owners should be sad, but Morton should be pretty comfortable.
Rollie's Mustache
3:04
Do you know anything about the projection system Fantrax uses? I've noticed it can differ quite significantly from Steamer and ZiPS, and seems more liberal with counting stats.
Brad Johnson
3:05
I don't, but chances are the run production looks different because it's ignoring most injury scenarios. For fantasy purposes that can make sense.
Anal Hershiser
3:05
Do you believe in Calhoun's projection?  Keep him or Matt Olson as my 10th?
Brad Johnson
3:06
In short, no. I'm reminded of the crazy projection for Matt Weiters way back in the day
He's definitely an interesting upside guy, but I'm not even sure he has an Opening Day role
3:07
His projection says 623 PA which seems crazy - never mind if he can perform at the rates with which he's credited.
Players who hit for power, average, and don't strikeout barely exist
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