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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 1-16-2018
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John M.
3:08
Should I trade my $2 Acuna for $51 Mookie in FGpnts Ottoneu?
Brad Johnson
3:08
No
$51 Mookie might already be under water in FGpts.
3:09
If you want to trade Acuna, wait until after the draft to swap him for Mookie, $49, AND something else. Spend the extra $49 on things you need.
Carl
3:09
Why do the Mets hate Dom Smith?   Do they really think they are contenders, maybe, and worry that Smith won't be able to help them?
Brad Johnson
3:09
Ooh, this is an easy one!
3:10
.198/.262/.395
Sure, the guy could make hard contact when he ran into one, but he was MASSIVELY overmatched in the majors last season
chances are decent he'd grow beyond that by the end of 2018 - maybe 40%?
3:11
Meanwhile, the Mets are looking at perhaps one more year to contend in the NL East before the division starts feeling crowded. It makes sense for them to secure a higher floor option.
James C
3:13
Why does the Super 2 deadline exist?
Brad Johnson
3:14
So players can get more money for having their service time jacked around by teams
Ironic, I know, since it also causes teams to mess with service time
It's another one of the many rules that greatly favors elite players over workaday types
JD15
3:15
Regarding your article yesterday on supply and demand, do you ever go into auctions with keepers that you don't necessarily want on your team because you know that they will be more valued post auction?
Brad Johnson
3:15
Yea, it definitely happens, especially if I've inherited a team.
3:16
Like I'm probably going to keep a $7 Amed Rosario just because I expect somebody to eventually like that valuation.
John M.
3:16
I am dealing with a pitching staff of Kershaw, Kluber, CMart, and Kimbrel. Should I deal Kluber and a prospect like K Tucker for someone like Turner? What about Klubot and Tucker for Scherzer? Worth the prospect to upgrade SP?
Brad Johnson
3:16
Scherzer and Kluber are identical values
3:17
So that definitely isn't worth it. I'd strongly recommend getting Trea Turner for Klub/Tucker
But not Justin Turner :)
JC
3:17
Trying to decide how long to extend Devers and Hoskins in 12 tm dynasty - starting price for both is $1, and inflation is determined by the # of years you extend them (e.g. a 4 year deal would be $5-$9-$13-$17). Would love to get your thoughts - thanks!
Brad Johnson
3:18
Depends on what happens at the back end of the deal. If you have to cut a $25 Devers in 6 years, are you on the hook for all of it?
3:19
My gut says 7 years for Devers and 6 for Hoskins. That's with very little effort involved.
3:20
Don't be afraid of taking some negative values on the back end. That said, there is some merit to being cautious.
Since it's just a 12 team league, you can always find more Devers and Hoskins if you only extend them 4 years and wind up regretting it.
OddBall Herrera
3:21
Re: Calhoun and his ridiculous projections.  Positional value aside, would you keep him for the next several years over some of the next up and comers (ex: Senzel, Gleybers)?
Brad Johnson
3:22
I think I prefer him to Gleyber but not Senzel. Basically, I prefer most of the bat first guys, but the toolsy utility types usually have more offensive hurdles to solve
James C
3:22
How many more years do you expect that Votto can put up first round production?
Brad Johnson
3:22
I'll handicap it at 0.5. First round production is a HIGH bar. He's been a second to fourth rounder for a big chunk of his career.
3:23
I think he can remain that kind of effective basically until his next major injury
whenever that happens
Pb&Js
3:23
Love the site and love your work, but even as a $20/yr member the mobile site is unusable (advertising redirects every other click). Please do something to help!
Brad Johnson
3:23
I saw some notes in our slack, there's a nasty batch of ad redirects going around. It's not just us.
Nate
3:24
Any SP’s or RP’s you think will significantly improve their K-BB%?
Brad Johnson
3:25
At least at this point in the offseason, I've taken an agnostic approach to pitching breakouts. Some guys are going to break out. I'm less confident than ever that it's predictable.
Once they show improved velocity, an increased slider usage, or bowling ball GB rate, I can tell you who to look at.
3:26
Until then, it's just guessing who won't be the same as in the past
Pb&Js
3:26
With Colin Moran's swing change and (presumable) starting gig, is he now fantasy viable?
Brad Johnson
3:26
Sure, in a late flier sense
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