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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1-21-2020
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Brad Johnson
4:28
I do kind of think seeing him in 2020 is a tad premature for a would-be contender.
I'm not assuming he's a late April call up like he's being drafted.
Anonymous
4:29
my pet peeve is when fantasy analysts say 'Take a shot on him! At his price he's free!' ... Roster spots are incredibly valuable my dude you have to know this
Brad Johnson
4:29
I try to leave the caveat of "subject to opportunity cost" as often as possible.
I can't qualify *everything* I say
I mean, I can, and I come way too damned close to doing so.
4:30
But it's bad writing.
4:31
If you read between the lines, a good half of my answers are a variation on "it depends." But it's also my job to stake a claim to something. I sometimes have to assume you left me enough information about your costs.
Victor Robles
4:31
Will I be a fantasy star in 2021 and beyond?
Brad Johnson
4:31
And 2020 too
Hell, there's talk of him batting leadoff, although that doesn't really pass muster for me.
Vic
4:31
Are Hader and Yates the most reliable closers? Or is it still Chapman?
Brad Johnson
4:32
It's a fool's errand to try to pick a "most reliable closer"
My advice is to keep them at affordable prices or buy them at value.
The latter portion of the statement can mean 2 things.
4:33
  1. if a top guy is falling down the draft, he could be worth it - I just wouldn't reach early.
  2. If the top guys go at a dear price, look for the Brandon Workmans of the draft.
Al
4:33
Honestly, is it wrong to think Franimal is similar to Eloy? Franmil increases average a bit and Eloy loses a bit...they're essentially the same at way different price, no?
Brad Johnson
4:33
I like Reyes as a late solution to power, but I don't see any ceiling on him
4:34
He's limited by his lack of plate discipline.
Might Eloy be overrated for 2020 purposes? Probably.
So I could see preferring cheap Reyes to expensive Eloy.
Ignoring cost, I don't think you can expect Reyes to keep up with Eloy without an injury or some other kind of help.
Trade
4:35
$1 ketel or $48 sale?
Brad Johnson
4:35
Ketel
Bang bang
4:35
Do you think McKay is likely to spend the majority of the year in the rotation? Who does he push out, Yarbs or Chirinos? In the best case scenario, could he finish a top 40 pitcher?
Brad Johnson
4:35
No. He's a Ray and he has options. If they option him once, they're going to option him 10 times
Ontilt1377
4:36
Rank Robles, mercado, Laureano 5x5 roto
Brad Johnson
4:36
Robles, Laureano, Mercado for me.
Decent separation between each. First two are closer than Mercado.
There is modest risk Mercado falls into a role where he only delivers 400 or 500 PA
4:37
The other 2 start every game for which they are healthy.
Your own personal troll
4:37
Who would you prefer in 2020 (16-team mixed; 5x5 standard cats; weekly roster moves; deep rosters, but 13 hitter, 6 SP, 5 RP; so deeper pitching; pitching is wildly inflated):  Tatis at $14 or Flaherty at $12?
Brad Johnson
4:37
I shouldn't have clicked this one. I don't know!
Those are both excellent values.
So I'll suggest the supporting cast is relevant.
4:38
And as a tie breaker, bats are "safer"
Astros Beeper
4:38
How much are you taking into account the cheating scandal this year?  Do you think there will be no impact on expected performance for the Atros?  5% drop?  10%?
Brad Johnson
4:38
It might be the wrong choice, but I haven't incorporated any shift in expectations.
4:39
I think my dream is for George Springer to start the season 1-for-20 so I can pounce.
Forrest G
4:39
Can Franmil be a top power bat this year? Why isn't he getting more love after 37 HR last year?
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